DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84959249606
论文题名: The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale
作者: Arnell N.W. ; Gosling S.N.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 134, 期: 3 起始页码: 387
结束页码: 401
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Flood control
; Frequency estimation
; Hazards
; Hydrology
; Risk assessment
; Risk perception
; Climate scenarios
; Damage functions
; Frequency curve
; Global mean surface temperature
; Grid resolution
; Hydrological modeling
; Regional flood risks
; Regional variability
; Floods
英文摘要: This paper presents an assessment of the implications of climate change for global river flood risk. It is based on the estimation of flood frequency relationships at a grid resolution of 0.5 × 0.5°, using a global hydrological model with climate scenarios derived from 21 climate models, together with projections of future population. Four indicators of the flood hazard are calculated; change in the magnitude and return period of flood peaks, flood-prone population and cropland exposed to substantial change in flood frequency, and a generalised measure of regional flood risk based on combining frequency curves with generic flood damage functions. Under one climate model, emissions and socioeconomic scenario (HadCM3 and SRES A1b), in 2050 the current 100-year flood would occur at least twice as frequently across 40 % of the globe, approximately 450 million flood-prone people and 430 thousand km2 of flood-prone cropland would be exposed to a doubling of flood frequency, and global flood risk would increase by approximately 187 % over the risk in 2050 in the absence of climate change. There is strong regional variability (most adverse impacts would be in Asia), and considerable variability between climate models. In 2050, the range in increased exposure across 21 climate models under SRES A1b is 31–450 million people and 59 to 430 thousand km2 of cropland, and the change in risk varies between −9 and +376 %. The paper presents impacts by region, and also presents relationships between change in global mean surface temperature and impacts on the global flood hazard. There are a number of caveats with the analysis; it is based on one global hydrological model only, the climate scenarios are constructed using pattern-scaling, and the precise impacts are sensitive to some of the assumptions in the definition and application. © 2014, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84406
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Arnell N.W.,Gosling S.N.. The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,134(3)