DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1521-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84951569913
论文题名: Fuel moisture sensitivity to temperature and precipitation: climate change implications
作者: Flannigan M.D. ; Wotton B.M. ; Marshall G.A. ; de Groot W.J. ; Johnston J. ; Jurko N. ; Cantin A.S.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 134, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 59
结束页码: 71
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Codes (symbols)
; Deforestation
; Fires
; Forestry
; Fuels
; Moisture
; Canadian forests
; Daily precipitations
; Daily temperatures
; Emission scenario
; General circulation model
; Higher frequencies
; Sensitivity to temperatures
; Temperature increase
; Climate change
; climate change
; forest floor
; moisture content
; precipitation (climatology)
; sensitivity analysis
; temperature profile
; Canada
英文摘要: The objective of this paper is to examine the sensitivity of fuel moisture to changes in temperature and precipitation and explore the implications under a future climate. We use the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System components to represent the moisture content of fine surface fuels (Fine Fuel Moisture Code, FFMC), upper forest floor (duff) layers (Duff Moisture Code, DMC) and deep organic soils (Drought Code, DC). We obtained weather data from 12 stations across Canada for the fire season during the 1971–2000 period and with these data we created a set of modified weather streams from the original data by varying the daily temperatures by 0 to +5 °C in increments of 1 °C and the daily precipitation from −40 to 40 % in increments of 10 %. The fuel moistures were calculated for all the temperature and precipitation combinations. When temperature increases we find that for every degree of warming, precipitation has to increase by more than 15 % for FFMC, about 10 % for DMC and about 5 % for DC to compensate for the drying caused by warmer temperatures. Also, we find in terms of the number of days equal to or above an FFMC of 91, a critical value for fire spread, that no increase in precipitation amount alone could compensate for a temperature increase of 1 °C. Results from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three emission scenarios suggest that this sensitivity to temperature increases will result in a future with drier fuels and a higher frequency of extreme fire weather days. © 2015, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84429
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada; Natural Resources Canada, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Sault Ste Marie, ON, Canada; University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Flannigan M.D.,Wotton B.M.,Marshall G.A.,et al. Fuel moisture sensitivity to temperature and precipitation: climate change implications[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,134(2018-01-02)