globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1485-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84947868181
论文题名:
How well do integrated assessment models represent non-CO2 radiative forcing?
作者: Harmsen M.J.H.M.; van Vuuren D.P.; van den Berg M.; Hof A.F.; Hope C.; Krey V.; Lamarque J.-F.; Marcucci A.; Shindell D.T.; Schaeffer M.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 133, 期:4
起始页码: 565
结束页码: 582
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Aerosols ; Atmospheric radiation ; Carbon ; Earth (planet) ; Anthropogenic emissions ; Climate effects ; Climate forcings ; Earth system model ; Indirect effects ; Integrated assessment models ; Optimal mitigation ; Radiative forcings ; Climate models ; anthropogenic source ; baseline conditions ; black carbon ; carbon dioxide ; climate forcing ; climate modeling ; environmental policy ; integrated approach ; methane ; ozone ; radiative forcing
英文摘要: This study aims to create insight in how Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) perform in describing the climate forcing by non-CO2 gases and aerosols. The simple climate models (SCMs) included in IAMs have been run with the same prescribed anthropogenic emission pathways and compared to analyses with complex earth system models (ESMs) in terms of concentration and radiative forcing levels. In our comparison, particular attention was given to the short-lived forcers' climate effects. In general, SCMs show forcing levels within the expert model ranges. However, the more simple SCMs seem to underestimate forcing differences between baseline and mitigation scenarios because of omission of ozone, black carbon and/or indirect methane forcing effects. Above all, results also show that among IAMs there is a significant spread (0.74 W/m2 in 2100) in non-CO2 forcing projections for a 2.6 W/m2 mitigation scenario, mainly due to uncertainties in the indirect effects of aerosols. This has large implications for determining optimal mitigation strategies among IAMs with regard to required CO2 forcing targets and policy costs. © 2015, The Author(s).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84459
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, Utrecht, Netherlands; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, Bilthoven, Netherlands; Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, Austria; National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), 1850 Table Mesa Dr, Boulder, CO, United States; Center of Economic Research, ETH Zurich, Zürichbergstrasse 18, Zurich, Switzerland; Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States; Climate Analytics, Potsdam, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Harmsen M.J.H.M.,van Vuuren D.P.,van den Berg M.,et al. How well do integrated assessment models represent non-CO2 radiative forcing?[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,133(4)
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