globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0913-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84949997763
论文题名:
Scenarios for vulnerability: opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk
作者: Birkmann J.; Cutter S.L.; Rothman D.S.; Welle T.; Garschagen M.; van Ruijven B.; O’Neill B.; Preston B.L.; Kienberger S.; Cardona O.D.; Siagian T.; Hidayati D.; Setiadi N.; Binder C.R.; Hughes B.; Pulwarty R.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 133, 期:1
起始页码: 53
结束页码: 68
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Economic and social effects ; Economics ; Risk perception ; Adaptive capacity ; Climate change adaptation ; Qualitative approach ; Quantitative approach ; Scenario development ; Scenario technique ; Socio-economic development ; Vulnerability assessments ; Climate change ; climate change ; climate effect ; disaster management ; participatory approach ; socioeconomic status ; vulnerability ; Indonesia ; Jakarta
英文摘要: Most scientific assessments for climate change adaptation and risk reduction are based on scenarios for climatic change. Scenarios for socio-economic development, particularly in terms of vulnerability and adaptive capacity, are largely lacking. This paper focuses on the utility of socio-economic scenarios for vulnerability, risk and adaptation research. The paper introduces the goals and functions of scenarios in general and reflects on the current global debate around shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). It examines the options and constraints of scenario methods for risk and vulnerability assessments in the context of climate change and natural hazards. Two case studies are used to contrast the opportunities and current constraints in scenario methods at different scales: the global WorldRiskIndex, based on quantitative data and indicators; and a local participatory scenario development process in Jakarta, showing a qualitative approach. The juxtaposition of a quantitative approach with global data and a qualitative-participatory local approach provides new insights on how different methods and scenario techniques can be applied in vulnerability and risk research. © 2013, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84476
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Institute for Environment and Human Security, United Nations University, Bonn, Germany; Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, United States; Pardee Center for International Futures, University of Denver, Denver, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, United States; Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, United States; University of Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria; Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Instituto de Estudios Ambientales (IDEA), Campus Palongrande, Manizales, Colombia; Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Government of Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia; Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), Jakarta, Indonesia; Department for Geography, University of Munich (LMU), Munich, Germany; Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, United States

Recommended Citation:
Birkmann J.,Cutter S.L.,Rothman D.S.,et al. Scenarios for vulnerability: opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,133(1)
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