DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1458-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84951570319
论文题名: Direct and indirect effects of climate on agriculture: an application of a spatial panel data analysis to Tunisia
作者: Zouabi O. ; Peridy N.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 133, 期: 2 起始页码: 301
结束页码: 320
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Agriculture
; Arid regions
; Cereal products
; Citrus fruits
; Climate models
; Data handling
; Geographical regions
; Groundwater
; Information analysis
; Spatial variables measurement
; Trees (mathematics)
; Agricultural productions
; Effects of temperature
; Geographical positions
; North african countries
; Panel data analysis
; Related variables
; Spatial dimension
; Spatial interaction
; Climate change
; agricultural production
; climate effect
; crop yield
; panel data
; spatial analysis
; spillover effect
; Tunisia
; Citrus
; Lycopersicon esculentum
; Oleaceae
; Solanum tuberosum
英文摘要: North African countries (NACs) are particularly concerned with climate change because of their geographical position (close to deserts) and their economic dependence on agriculture. We aim to provide additional insight into the impact of climate on agriculture for NACs, through the example of Tunisia. We first use disaggregated data, both at the geographical level (for 24 regions in Tunisia) and at the product level (cereals, olives, citrus fruit, tomatoes, potatoes and palm trees). Second, through spatial panel data analysis, we explore both the time and spatial dimensions of the data. This makes it possible to consider spatial interactions in agricultural production and the role of climate in these spatial spillover effects. Finally, the model not only includes direct climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, but also indirect climate-related variables such as the stock of water in dams and groundwater. Results show that Tunisian agriculture is strongly dependent on the direct effects of temperature and precipitation for all the products considered at the regional level. The presence of dams and groundwater generally has a positive effect on agricultural production for irrigated crops with interesting spillover effects with neighboring regions. However, this impact is still considerably lessened in the case of detrimental climate conditions (indirect effect). These results raise the question of the sustainability of the growth in agricultural production in Tunisia in the case of significant climate change. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84489
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: LEAD, Université de Toulon, Toulon, France; Université de Tunis El Manar, Tunisia, Tunisia
Recommended Citation:
Zouabi O.,Peridy N.. Direct and indirect effects of climate on agriculture: an application of a spatial panel data analysis to Tunisia[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,133(2)