DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1432-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84942505437
论文题名: Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: a preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications
作者: Otto F.E.L. ; Boyd E. ; Jones R.G. ; Cornforth R.J. ; James R. ; Parker H.R. ; Allen M.R.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 132, 期: 4 起始页码: 531
结束页码: 543
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Decision making
; Developing countries
; Public policy
; Risk assessment
; Risks
; Weather information services
; Anthropogenic climate changes
; Climate change adaptation
; Emerging science
; Extreme events
; Extreme weather events
; ITS applications
; Policy implications
; Scientific evidence
; Climate change
; adaptation
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; climate effect
; developing world
; environmental assessment
; extreme event
; probability
; risk assessment
; stakeholder
; vulnerability
; weather
; Africa
英文摘要: Extreme weather events are a significant cause of loss of life and livelihoods, particularly in vulnerable countries and communities in Africa. Such events or their probability of occurring may be, or are, changing due to climate change with consequent changes in the associated risks. To adapt to, or to address loss and damage from, this changing risk we need to understand the effects of climate change on extreme weather events and their impacts. The emerging science of probabilistic event attribution can provide scientific evidence about the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to changes in risk of extreme events. This research has the potential to be useful for climate change adaptation, but there is a need to explore its application in vulnerable developing countries, particularly those in Africa, since the majority of existing event attribution studies have focused on mid-latitude events. Here we explain the methods of, and implications of, different approaches to attributing extreme weather events in an African context. The analysis demonstrates that different ways of framing attribution questions can lead to very different assessments of change in risk. Crucially, defining the most appropriate attribution question to ask is not a science decision but one that needs to be made in dialogue with those stakeholders who will use the answers. This is true of all attribution studies but may be particularly relevant in a tropical context, suggesting that collaboration between scientists and policy-makers is a priority for Africa. © 2015, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84504
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, United Kingdom; University of Reading, Whiteknights, Reading, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, United Kingdom; Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Otto F.E.L.,Boyd E.,Jones R.G.,et al. Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: a preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,132(4)