| DOI: | 10.1007/s10584-015-1438-7
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84942504705
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| 论文题名: | The relationship between temperature and assault in New Zealand |
| 作者: | Williams M.N.; Hill S.R.; Spicer J.
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| 刊名: | Climatic Change
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| ISSN: | 0165-0009
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| EISSN: | 1573-1480
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 132, 期:4 | | 起始页码: | 559
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| 结束页码: | 573
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | Crime
; Digital storage
; Accurate prediction
; Anthropogenic climate changes
; Daily variations
; New zealand
; Short-term variations
; Climate change
; climate change
; crime
; data interpretation
; global warming
; historical time (human history)
; hospital sector
; human activity
; human behavior
; nature-society relations
; police force
; prediction
; temperature effect
; temperature profile
; violence
; New Zealand
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| 英文摘要: | A number of previous studies have reported a positive relationship between ambient temperature and the incidence of violent crimes such as assault. This has led some authors to suggest that anthropogenic climate change may result in an increase in violent crime rates. In this study, we report an investigation of the relationship between temperature and assault incidence in New Zealand. Both police data listing recorded assaults as well as data from the Ministry of Health listing hospitalisations due to assault were examined. Geographical, seasonal, and irregular daily variation in temperature were all positively related to the incidence of assault, although only the effect of irregular variation in temperature was robust to controls for plausible confounds. The estimated effect of irregular daily variation in temperature was approximately 1.5 % extra recorded assaults for each 1 °C increase in temperature. It remains difficult, however, to make accurate predictions about future assault rates in a warming world. For example, humans may react to sustained changes in climate in ways that differ markedly from their reaction to short-term variation in temperature. Climate change may also affect rates of violence via mechanisms other than those that currently drive the relationship between temperature and violence. Furthermore, assault rates may continue to change in response to factors unrelated to climate change, such as those responsible for the long-term historical decline in human violence. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84507
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | School of Psychology, Massey University, Private Bag 102904, North Shore, Auckland, New Zealand
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Williams M.N.,Hill S.R.,Spicer J.. The relationship between temperature and assault in New Zealand[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,132(4)
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