DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1210-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84942328755
论文题名: Developing dynamic adaptive policy pathways: a computer-assisted approach for developing adaptive strategies for a deeply uncertain world
作者: Kwakkel J.H. ; Haasnoot M. ; Walker W.E.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 132, 期: 3 起始页码: 373
结束页码: 386
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Decision making
; Evolutionary algorithms
; Land use
; Optimization
; Water conservation
; Water management
; Changing environment
; Computer assisted
; Integrated assessment
; Model driven approach
; Multi objective evolutionary algorithms
; Multiple-objectives
; Robust optimization
; Sustainable water management
; Climate change
; adaptive management
; algorithm
; climate change
; computer simulation
; decision making
; integrated approach
; land use change
; optimization
; policy approach
; sustainability
; uncertainty analysis
; water management
英文摘要: Sustainable water management in a changing environment full of uncertainty is profoundly challenging. To deal with these uncertainties, dynamic adaptive policies that can be changed over time are suggested. This paper presents a model-driven approach supporting the development of promising adaptation pathways, and illustrates the approach using a hypothetical case. We use robust optimization over uncertainties related to climate change, land use, cause-effect relations, and policy efficacy, to identify the most promising pathways. For this purpose, we generate an ensemble of possible futures and evaluate candidate pathways over this ensemble using an Integrated Assessment Meta Model. We understand ‘most promising’ in terms of the robustness of the performance of the candidate pathways on multiple objectives, and use a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm to find the set of most promising pathways. This results in an adaptation map showing the set of most promising adaptation pathways and options for transferring from one pathway to another. Given the pathways and signposts, decision-makers can make an informed decision on a dynamic adaptive plan in a changing environment that is able to achieve their intended objectives despite the myriad of uncertainties. © 2014, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84517
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5015, Delft, Netherlands; Deltares, PO Box 177, Delft, Netherlands; Department of Policy Analysis, Department of Air Transport & Operations, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5015, Delft, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Kwakkel J.H.,Haasnoot M.,Walker W.E.. Developing dynamic adaptive policy pathways: a computer-assisted approach for developing adaptive strategies for a deeply uncertain world[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,132(3)