DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1071-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84940722353
论文题名: What can ecosystem models tell us about the risk of eutrophication in the North Sea?
作者: Saux Picart S. ; Allen J.I. ; Butenschön M. ; Artioli Y. ; de Mora L. ; Wakelin S. ; Holt J.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 132, 期: 1 起始页码: 111
结束页码: 125
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Ecology
; Ecosystems
; Marine pollution
; Risk assessment
; Risk perception
; River pollution
; Anthropogenic pressures
; Continuous fields
; Ecosystem-based management
; Marine strategy framework directives
; Model sensitivity
; Oxygen depletion
; Past and present
; Plankton communities
; Eutrophication
; algae
英文摘要: Eutrophication is a process resulting from an increase in anthropogenic nutrient inputs from rivers and other sources, the consequences of which can include enhanced algal biomass, changes in plankton community composition and oxygen depletion near the seabed. Within the context of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, indicators (and associated threshold) have been identified to assess the eutrophication status of an ecosystem. Large databases of observations (in situ) are required to properly assess the eutrophication status. Marine hydrodynamic/ecosystem models provide continuous fields of a wide range of ecosystem characteristics. Using such models in this context could help to overcome the lack of in situ data, and provide a powerful tool for ecosystem-based management and policy makers. Here we demonstrate a methodology that uses a combination of model outputs and in situ data to assess the risk of eutrophication in the coastal domain of the North Sea. The risk of eutrophication is computed for the past and present time as well as for different future scenarios. This allows us to assess both the current risk and its sensitivity to anthropogenic pressure and climate change. Model sensitivity studies suggest that the coastal waters of the North Sea may be more sensitive to anthropogenic rivers loads than climate change in the near future (to 2040). © 2014, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84532
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth, United Kingdom; National Oceanography Centre, 6 Brownlow Street, Liverpool, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Saux Picart S.,Allen J.I.,Butenschön M.,et al. What can ecosystem models tell us about the risk of eutrophication in the North Sea?[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,132(1)