globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1403-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84937522500
论文题名:
Comparison of low-carbon pathways for California
作者: Morrison G.M.; Yeh S.; Eggert A.R.; Yang C.; Nelson J.H.; Greenblatt J.B.; Isaac R.; Jacobson M.Z.; Johnston J.; Kammen D.M.; Mileva A.; Moore J.; Roland-Holst D.; Wei M.; Weyant J.P.; Williams J.H.; Williams R.; Zapata C.B.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 131, 期:4
起始页码: 545
结束页码: 557
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Crashworthiness ; Emission control ; Energy efficiency ; Global warming ; Motor transportation ; Uncertainty analysis ; Economic impacts ; Global warming potential ; Greenhouse gas (GHG) ; Interactive effect ; Mitigation strategy ; Model comparison ; Technology deployment ; Transportation sector ; Greenhouse gases ; bioenergy ; carbon cycle ; comparative study ; economic impact ; electricity generation ; emission control ; emission inventory ; energy efficiency ; environmental economics ; environmental policy ; greenhouse gas ; pollution control ; spatiotemporal analysis ; California ; United States
英文摘要: Jurisdictions throughout the world are contemplating greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies that will enable meeting long-term GHG targets. Many jurisdictions are now focusing on the 2020–2050 timeframe. We conduct an inter-model comparison of nine California statewide energy models with GHG mitigation scenarios to 2050 to better understand common insights across models, ranges of intermediate GHG targets (i.e., for 2030), necessary technology deployment rates, and future modeling needs for the state. The models are diverse in their representation of the California economy: across scenarios with deep reductions in GHGs, annual statewide GHG emissions are 8–46 % lower than 1990 levels by 2030 and 59–84 % lower by 2050 (not including the Wind-Water-Solar model); the largest cumulative reductions occur in scenarios that favor early mitigation; non-hydroelectric renewables account for 30–58 % of electricity generated for the state in 2030 and 30–89 % by 2050 (not including the Wind-Water-Solar model) ; the transportation sector is decarbonized using a mix of energy efficiency gains and alternative-fueled vehicles; and bioenergy is directed almost exclusively towards the transportation sector, accounting for a maximum of 40 % of transportation energy by 2050. Models suggest that without new policies, emissions from non-energy sectors and from high-global-warming-potential gases may alone exceed California’s 2050 GHG goal. Finally, future modeling efforts should focus on the: economic impacts and logistical feasibility of given scenarios, interactive effects between two or more climate policies, role of uncertainty in the state’s long-term energy planning, and identification of pathways that achieve the dual goals of criteria pollutant and GHG emission reduction. © 2015, The Author(s).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84559
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, CA, United States; Policy Institute for Energy, Environment and the Economy, University of California, Davis, CA, United States; Union of Concerned Scientists, Berkeley, CA, United States; Energy Analysis and Environmental Impacts Department, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States; Energy Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, CA, United States; Energy and Environmental Economics, San Francisco, CA, United States; Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley, CA, United States; Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States; Monterey Institute of International Studies, Monterey, CA, United States; Pacific Gas and Electric, San Francisco, CA, United States; Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, University of California, Davis, CA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Morrison G.M.,Yeh S.,Eggert A.R.,et al. Comparison of low-carbon pathways for California[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,131(4)
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