DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1411-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84937512797
论文题名: Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios
作者: Jones A.D. ; Calvin K.V. ; Collins W.D. ; Edmonds J.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 131, 期: 4 起始页码: 691
结束页码: 703
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric radiation
; Biofuels
; Crops
; Deforestation
; Forestry
; Fossil fuels
; Land use
; Reforestation
; Solar radiation
; Vegetation
; Assessment models
; Earth system model
; Emissions reduction
; Fossil fuel emissions
; Integrated assessment models
; Land use and land cover change
; Radiation environments
; Radiative forcings
; Climate change
; afforestation
; albedo
; assessment method
; atmospheric forcing
; cooling
; crop yield
; energy crop
; environmental policy
; fossil fuel
; global warming
; land use change
; numerical model
; radiative forcing
; shrub
; vegetation cover
; vegetation structure
英文摘要: We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change (LULCC) within an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The method relies on geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions derived from the Community Earth System Model. We find that conversion of 1 km2 of woody vegetation (forest and shrublands) to non-woody vegetation (crops and grassland) yields between 0 and −0.71 nW/m2 of globally averaged radiative forcing determined by the vegetation characteristics, snow dynamics, and atmospheric radiation environment characteristic within each of 151 regions we consider globally. Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future LULCC, we find LULCC forcing ranging from −0.06 to −0.29 W/m2 by 2070 depending on assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and whether climate policy favors afforestation or bioenergy crops. Inclusion of this previously uncounted forcing in the policy targets driving future climate mitigation efforts leads to changes in fossil fuel emissions on the order of 1.5 PgC/yr by 2070 for a climate forcing limit of 4.5 Wm−2, corresponding to a 12–67 % change in fossil fuel emissions depending on the scenario. Scenarios with significant afforestation must compensate for albedo-induced warming through additional emissions reductions, and scenarios with significant deforestation need not mitigate as aggressively due to albedo-induced cooling. In all scenarios considered, inclusion of albedo forcing in policy targets increases forest and shrub cover globally. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht (outside the USA). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84561
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, One Cyclotron Road, Berkeley, CA, United States; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Joint Global Change Research Institute, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD, United States; University of California Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Jones A.D.,Calvin K.V.,Collins W.D.,et al. Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,131(4)