DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1118-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84933504495
论文题名: Quantifying and monetizing potential climate change policy impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and wildfires in the United States
作者: Mills D. ; Jones R. ; Carney K. ; St. Juliana A. ; Ready R. ; Crimmins A. ; Martinich J. ; Shouse K. ; DeAngelo B. ; Monier E.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 131, 期: 1 起始页码: 163
结束页码: 178
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric radiation
; Climate change
; Ecology
; Ecosystems
; Fires
; Greenhouse gases
; Climate change policies
; Greenhouse gas mitigation
; Initial conditions
; Model approach
; Radiative forcings
; Terrestrial ecosystems
; Threshold condition
; Vegetation model
; Climate models
; carbon sequestration
; climate change
; climate modeling
; cost analysis
; ecological modeling
; emission control
; environmental management
; environmental policy
; greenhouse gas
; magnitude
; radiative forcing
; sensitivity analysis
; terrestrial ecosystem
; threshold
; wildfire
; United States
英文摘要: This paper develops and applies methods to quantify and monetize projected impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and areas burned by wildfires in the contiguous United States under scenarios with and without global greenhouse gas mitigation. The MC1 dynamic global vegetation model is used to develop physical impact projections using three climate models that project a range of future conditions. We also investigate the sensitivity of future climates to different initial conditions of the climate model. Our analysis reveals that mitigation, where global radiative forcing is stabilized at 3.7 W/m2 in 2100, would consistently reduce areas burned from 2001 to 2100 by tens of millions of hectares. Monetized, these impacts are equivalent to potentially avoiding billions of dollars (discounted) in wildfire response costs. Impacts to terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage are less uniform, but changes are on the order of billions of tons over this time period. The equivalent social value of these changes in carbon storage ranges from hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars (discounted). The magnitude of these results highlights their importance when evaluating climate policy options. However, our results also show national outcomes are driven by a few regions and results are not uniform across regions, time periods, or models. Differences in the results based on the modeling approach and across initializing conditions also raise important questions about how variability in projected climates is accounted for, especially when considering impacts where extreme or threshold conditions are important. © 2014, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84572
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Stratus Consulting Inc., 1881 Ninth Street, Suite 201, Boulder, CO, United States; Penn State University, 417 Old Main, University Park, PA, United States; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Change Division, Ariel Rios Building, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Washington, DC, United States; Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Mills D.,Jones R.,Carney K.,et al. Quantifying and monetizing potential climate change policy impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and wildfires in the United States[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,131(1)