DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1371-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84929954001
论文题名: Will climate change increase or decrease suicide rates? The differing effects of geographical, seasonal, and irregular variation in temperature on suicide incidence
作者: Williams M.N. ; Hill S.R. ; Spicer J.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 130, 期: 4 起始页码: 519
结束页码: 528
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Anthropogenic climate changes
; Environmental temperature
; Generalized linear mixed models
; Geographical variations
; Global temperatures
; Linear relationships
; Seasonal variation
; Temporal variation
; Climate change
; climate change
; geographical variation
; human activity
; risk factor
; seasonal variation
; suicide
; temperature effect
; New Zealand
英文摘要: The effect of environmental temperature on suicide risk is an important issue given the increase in global temperatures expected over the following century. Previous research has produced conflicting findings: Studies concerned with temporal variation in temperature and suicide have tended to find a positive relationship, while those concerned with geographical variation in temperature and suicide have tended to find a negative relationship. In this study, we aimed firstly to estimate the relationship between suicide incidence and three components of variation in temperature: Irregular, seasonal, and geographical. Secondly, we aimed to critically examine what this information can (and cannot) tell us about the likely effects of anthropogenic climate change on suicide rates. Suicide data from New Zealand for the period 1988 to 2007 were collated according to date of death and district and compared with temperature data from the same period. Using generalized linear mixed models, we found that irregular variation in temperature was positively related to suicide incidence, with about 1.8 % more suicides for every 1 °C increase in temperature. On the other hand, seasonal variation in temperature had virtually no linear relationship with suicide incidence, and when controlling for demographic differences, geographical variation in temperature was negatively related to suicide incidence. We conclude that differences in both the sign and the direction of the effects of different forms of variation in temperature mean that it is very difficult to predict how climate change will affect risk of suicide. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84604
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Psychology, Massey University, Private Bag 102904, Auckland, New Zealand
Recommended Citation:
Williams M.N.,Hill S.R.,Spicer J.. Will climate change increase or decrease suicide rates? The differing effects of geographical, seasonal, and irregular variation in temperature on suicide incidence[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,130(4)