DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1302-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84939979120
论文题名: Projected changes in diverse ecosystems from climate warming and biophysical drivers in northwest Alaska
作者: Jorgenson M.T. ; Marcot B.G. ; Swanson D.K. ; Jorgenson J.C. ; DeGange A.R.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 130, 期: 2 起始页码: 131
结束页码: 144
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Biophysics
; Ecosystems
; Biophysical factors
; Boreal ecosystems
; Comprehensive assessment
; Heterogeneous landscapes
; Mean annual air temperatures
; Potential effects
; State transition models
; Temperature modeling
; Ecology
英文摘要: Climate warming affects arctic and boreal ecosystems by interacting with numerous biophysical factors across heterogeneous landscapes. To assess potential effects of warming on diverse local-scale ecosystems (ecotypes) across northwest Alaska, we compiled data on historical areal changes over the last 25–50 years. Based on historical rates of change relative to time and temperature, we developed three state-transition models to project future changes in area for 60 ecotypes involving 243 potential transitions during three 30-year periods (ending 2040, 2070, 2100). The time model, assuming changes over the past 30 years continue at the same rate, projected a net change, or directional shift, of 6 % by 2100. The temperature model, using past rates of change relative to the past increase in regional mean annual air temperatures (1 °C/30 year), projected a net change of 17 % in response to expected warming of 2, 4, and 6 °C at the end of the three periods. A rate-adjusted temperature model, which adjusted transition rates (±50 %) based on assigned feedbacks associated with 23 biophysical drivers, estimated a net change of 13 %, with 33 ecotypes gaining and 23 ecotypes losing area. Major drivers included shrub and tree expansion, fire, succession, and thermokarst. Overall, projected changes will be modest over the next century even though climate warming increased transition rates up to 9 fold. The strength of this state-transition modeling is that it used a large dataset of past changes to provide a comprehensive assessment of likely future changes associated with numerous drivers affecting the full diversity of ecosystems across a broad region. © 2014, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84626
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Alaska Ecoscience, 2332 Cordes Way, Fairbanks, AK, United States; USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 620 SW Main St., Suite 400, Portland, OR, United States; National Park Service, 4175 Geist Rd, Fairbanks, AK, United States; Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, 101 12th Ave, Room 236, Fairbanks, AK, United States; Alaska Climate Science Center, U. S. Geological Survey, 4210 University Drive, Anchorage, AK, United States
Recommended Citation:
Jorgenson M.T.,Marcot B.G.,Swanson D.K.,et al. Projected changes in diverse ecosystems from climate warming and biophysical drivers in northwest Alaska[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,130(2)