DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0954-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84925881632
论文题名: Modeling high-impact weather and climate: lessons from a tropical cyclone perspective
作者: Done J.M. ; Holland G.J. ; Bruyère C.L. ; Leung L.R. ; Suzuki-Parker A.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 129, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 381
结束页码: 395
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Hurricanes
; Meteorology
; Storms
; Current modeling
; Impact-parameter
; Physical process
; Regional climate
; Regional climate modeling
; Societal impacts
; Statistical assessment
; Tropical cyclone
; Climate models
; accuracy assessment
; climate effect
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; downscaling
; parameterization
; regional climate
; simulation
; tropical cyclone
英文摘要: Although the societal impact of a weather event increases with the rarity of the event, our current ability to assess extreme events and their impacts is limited by not only rarity but also by current model fidelity and a lack of understanding and capacity to model the underlying physical processes. This challenge is driving fresh approaches to assess high-impact weather and climate. Recent lessons learned in modeling high-impact weather and climate are presented using the case of tropical cyclones as an illustrative example. Through examples using the Nested Regional Climate Model to dynamically downscale large-scale climate data the need to treat bias in the driving data is illustrated. Domain size, location, and resolution are also shown to be critical and should be adequate to: include relevant regional climate physical processes; resolve key impact parameters; and accurately simulate the response to changes in external forcing. The notion of sufficient model resolution is introduced together with the added value in combining dynamical and statistical assessments to fill out the parent distribution of high-impact parameters. © 2013, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84655
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: NCAR Earth System Laboratory, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO, United States; Environmental Sciences and Management, North-West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, PO Box 999, Richland, WA, United States; University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Done J.M.,Holland G.J.,Bruyère C.L.,et al. Modeling high-impact weather and climate: lessons from a tropical cyclone perspective[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,129(2018-03-04)