DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1296-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84916926560
论文题名: “Agro-meteorological indices and climate model uncertainty over the UK”
作者: Harding A.E. ; Rivington M. ; Mineter M.J. ; Tett S.F.B.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 128, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 113
结束页码: 126
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Uncertainty analysis
; Climate sensitivity
; Ensemble members
; Growing season lengths
; High temperature
; Meteorological index
; Model uncertainties
; Regional climate modeling
; Statistical robustness
; Climate models
; agrometeorology
; climate modeling
; data set
; environmental assessment
; frost
; growing season
; high temperature
; mapping
; regional climate
; spatial variation
; statistical analysis
; uncertainty analysis
; United Kingdom
英文摘要: Five stakeholder-relevant indices of agro-meteorological change were analysed for the UK, over past (1961–1990) and future (2061–2090) periods. Accumulated Frosts, Dry Days, Growing Season Length, Plant Heat Stress and Start of Field Operations were calculated from the E-Obs (European Observational) and HadRM3 (Hadley Regional Climate Model) PPE (perturbed physics ensemble) data sets. Indices were compared directly and examined for current and future uncertainty. Biases are quantified in terms of ensemble member climate sensitivity and regional aggregation. Maps of spatial change then provide an appropriate metric for end-users both in terms of their requirements and statistical robustness. A future UK is described with fewer frosts, fewer years with a large number of frosts, an earlier start to field operations (e.g., tillage), fewer occurrences of sporadic rainfall, more instances of high temperatures (in both the mean and upper range), and a much longer growing season. © 2014, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84660
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Grant Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Harding A.E.,Rivington M.,Mineter M.J.,et al. “Agro-meteorological indices and climate model uncertainty over the UK”[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,128(2018-01-02)