globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1291-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84916933722
论文题名:
Assessing climate change impacts on European wind energy from ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate projections
作者: Tobin I.; Vautard R.; Balog I.; Bréon F.-M.; Jerez S.; Ruti P.M.; Thais F.; Vrac M.; Yiou P.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 128, 期:2018-01-02
起始页码: 99
结束页码: 112
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models ; Electric power generation ; Electric utilities ; Wind power ; Climate change impact ; Geographical patterns ; Global climate model ; Regional climate models ; Regional climate projections ; Wind energy development ; Wind power development ; Wind power production ; Climate change ; climate change ; climate effect ; climate prediction ; electricity generation ; energy efficiency ; energy planning ; Mediterranean environment ; wind power ; Europe
英文摘要: Climate change may alter the geographical pattern and intensity of near-surface winds which are the “fuel” for wind turbines. In a context of fast current and planned development of wind power worldwide, investigating the impacts of climate change on wind power generation is necessary. This study aims at assessing future changes in the potential for wind power generation over the whole Europe and in the effective wind power production from national wind farms operating at the end of 2012 and planned by 2020. For this purpose, a simplified wind power generation model is applied to an ensemble of 15 regional climate projections achieved from 10 Regional Climate Models downscaling six Global Climate Models under the SRES A1B emission scenario from the ENSEMBLES project. The use of a relatively large multi-model ensemble allows the identification of robust changes and the estimation of a range of uncertainties associated with projected changes. We show with a high level of confidence that, under the A1B scenario, over most of Europe, changes in wind power potential will remain within ±15 and ±20 % by mid and late century respectively. Overall, we find a tendency toward a decrease of the wind power potential over Mediterranean areas and an increase over Northern Europe. Changes in multi-year power production will not exceed 5 and 15 % in magnitude at the European and national scale respectively for both wind farms in operation at the end of 2012 and planned by 2020. Therefore, climate change should neither undermine nor favor wind energy development in Europe. However, accounting for climate change effects in particular regions may help optimize the wind power development and energy mix plans. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84694
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, IPSL, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, CEA Orme des Merisiers, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; ENEA Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development, UTMEA-CLIM Energy Environment Modeling Unit - Climate & Impact Modeling Laboratory, Roma, Italy; Department of Physics, University of Murcia, Murcia, Spain; I-Tésé, Institut de Technico-Economie des Systèmes Energétiques, CEA/DEN/DANS, CEA Saclay, Gif-Sur-Yvette, France

Recommended Citation:
Tobin I.,Vautard R.,Balog I.,et al. Assessing climate change impacts on European wind energy from ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate projections[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,128(2018-01-02)
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