globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1290-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84916939918
论文题名:
Spatially resolved estimation of ozone-related mortality in the United States under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their uncertainty
作者: Kim Y.-M.; Zhou Y.; Gao Y.; Fu J.S.; Johnson B.A.; Huang C.; Liu Y.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 128, 期:2018-01-02
起始页码: 71
结束页码: 84
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Air pollution ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Computer simulation ; Emission control ; Greenhouse gases ; Monte Carlo methods ; Ozone ; Adaptation policies ; Climate model simulations ; Confidence interval ; Emissions reduction ; High-resolution models ; Mortality estimations ; Spatially resolved ; Tropospheric ozone ; Uncertainty analysis ; atmospheric pollution ; carbon emission ; climate modeling ; estimation method ; greenhouse gas ; Monte Carlo analysis ; ozone ; pollution policy ; uncertainty analysis ; United States
英文摘要: The spatial pattern of the uncertainty in air pollution-related health impacts due to climate change has rarely been studied due to the lack of high-resolution model simulations, especially under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the latest greenhouse gas emission pathways. We estimated future tropospheric ozone (O3) and related excess mortality and evaluated the associated uncertainties in the continental United States under RCPs. Based on dynamically downscaled climate model simulations, we calculated changes in O3 level at 12 km resolution between the future (2057 and 2059) and base years (2001–2004) under a low-to-medium emission scenario (RCP4.5) and a fossil fuel intensive emission scenario (RCP8.5). We then estimated the excess mortality attributable to changes in O3. Finally, we analyzed the sensitivity of the excess mortality estimates to the input variables and the uncertainty in the excess mortality estimation using Monte Carlo simulations. O3-related premature deaths in the continental U.S. were estimated to be 1312 deaths/year under RCP8.5 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 427 to 2198) and −2118 deaths/year under RCP4.5 (95 % CI: −3021 to −1216), when allowing for climate change and emissions reduction. The uncertainty of O3-related excess mortality estimates was mainly caused by RCP emissions pathways. Excess mortality estimates attributable to the combined effect of climate and emission changes on O3 as well as the associated uncertainties vary substantially in space and so do the most influential input variables. Spatially resolved data is crucial to develop effective community level mitigation and adaptation policy. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84695
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Rd. NE, Atlanta, GA, United States; Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 902 Battelle Blvd, Richland, WA, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Tennessee, 325 John D. Tickle Building, Knoxville, TN, United States; Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Rd. NE, Atlanta, GA, United States; Department of Global Health and Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, 950 New Hampshire Ave, Washington, DC, United States; Department of Biostatistics and Computational Biology, University of Rochester, 601 Elmwood Ave. Box 630, Rochester, NY, United States

Recommended Citation:
Kim Y.-M.,Zhou Y.,Gao Y.,et al. Spatially resolved estimation of ozone-related mortality in the United States under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their uncertainty[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,128(2018-01-02)
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