DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1249-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84939880581
论文题名: Future changes of the terrestrial ecosystem based on a dynamic vegetation model driven with RCP8.5 climate projections from 19 GCMs
作者: Yu M. ; Wang G. ; Parr D. ; Ahmed K.F.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 127, 期: 2 起始页码: 257
结束页码: 271
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Carbon dioxide
; Climate models
; Ecosystems
; Forestry
; Tropics
; Vegetation
; Climate change projections
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Deciduous trees and shrubs
; Degree of uncertainty
; Dynamic vegetation model
; Global climate model
; Terrestrial ecosystems
; Vegetation distribution
; Climate change
英文摘要: Future changes of terrestrial ecosystems due to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate are subject to a large degree of uncertainty, especially for vegetation in the Tropics. Here, we evaluate the natural vegetation response to projected future changes using an improved version of a dynamic vegetation model (CLM-CN-DV) driven with climate change projections from 19 global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The simulated equilibrium vegetation distribution under historical climate (1981–2000) has been compared with that under the projected future climate (2081–2100) scenario for Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) to qualitatively assess how natural potential vegetation might change in the future. With one outlier excluded, the ensemble average of vegetation changes corresponding to climates of 18 GCMs shows a poleward shift of forests in northern Eurasia and North America, which is consistent with findings from previous studies. It also shows a general “upgrade” of vegetation type in the Tropics and most of the temperate zones, in the form of deciduous trees and shrubs taking over C3 grass in Europe and broadleaf deciduous trees taking over C4 grasses in Central Africa and the Amazon. LAI and NPP are projected to increase in the high latitudes, southeastern Asia, southeastern North America, and Central Africa. This results from CO2 fertilization, enhanced water use efficiency, and in the extra-tropics warming. However, both LAI and NPP are projected to decrease in the Amazon due to drought. The competing impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization lead to large uncertainties in the projection of future vegetation changes in the Tropics. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84702
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering & Center for Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, United States; Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education & International Joint Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
Recommended Citation:
Yu M.,Wang G.,Parr D.,et al. Future changes of the terrestrial ecosystem based on a dynamic vegetation model driven with RCP8.5 climate projections from 19 GCMs[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,127(2)