DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1021-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84906270352
论文题名: Interrogating empirical-statistical downscaling
作者: Hewitson B.C. ; Daron J. ; Crane R.G. ; Zermoglio M.F. ; Jack C.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 122, 期: 4 起始页码: 539
结束页码: 554
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Crashworthiness
; Electrostatic discharge
; Adaptation decisions
; Appropriate metrics
; Climate information
; Climate projection
; Conceptual foundations
; Ethical responsibility
; Policy development
; Statistical downscaling
; Electrostatic devices
英文摘要: The delivery of downscaled climate information is increasingly seen as a vehicle of climate services, a driver for impacts studies and adaptation decisions, and for informing policy development. Empirical-statistical downscaling (ESD) is widely used; however, the accompanying responsibility is significant, and predicated on effective understanding of the limitations and capabilities of ESD methods. There remain substantial contradictions, uncertainties, and sensitivity to assumptions between the different methods commonly used. Yet providing decision-relevant downscaled climate projections to help support national and local adaptation is core to the growing global momentum seeking to operationalize what is, in effect, still foundational research. We argue that any downscaled climate information must address the criteria of being plausible, defensible and actionable. Climate scientists cannot absolve themselves of their ethical responsibility when informing adaptation and must, therefore, be diligent in ensuring any information provided adequately addresses these three criteria. Frameworks for supporting such assessment are not well developed. We interrogate the conceptual foundations of statistical downscaling methodologies and their assumptions, and articulate a framework for evaluating and integrating downscaling output into the wider landscape of climate information. For ESD there are key criteria that need to be satisfied to underpin the credibility of the derived product. Assessing these criteria requires the use of appropriate metrics to test the comprehensive treatment of local climate response to large-scale forcing, and to compare across methods. We illustrate the potential consequences of methodological choices on the interpretation of downscaling results and explore the purposes, benefits and limitations of using statistical downscaling. © 2013, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84772
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Climate System Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch, Western Cape, South Africa; Climate System Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, Western Cape, South Africa; Alliance for Education, Science, Engineering and Development in Africa, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, Western Cape, South Africa; AFR, The World Bank, 1818 H Street N.W., Washington, DC, United States
Recommended Citation:
Hewitson B.C.,Daron J.,Crane R.G.,et al. Interrogating empirical-statistical downscaling[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,122(4)