DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1004-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957727897
论文题名: On climate variability and civil war in Asia
作者: Wischnath G. ; Buhaug H.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 122, 期: 4 起始页码: 709
结束页码: 721
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climatology
; Rain
; Armed conflict
; Climate effects
; Climate variability
; Empirical evaluations
; Interannual climate variability
; Research designs
; Spatio-temporal domains
; Sub-saharan africa
; Climate change
英文摘要: Effects of climate change are frequently claimed to be responsible for widespread civil violence. Yet, scientists remain divided on this issue, and recent studies suggest that conflict risk increases with higher rainfall, loss of rainfall, higher temperatures or none of the above. Lack of scientific consensus is driven by differences in data, methods, and samples, but may also reflect a fragile and inconsistent correlation for the habitual spatiotemporal domain, Sub-Saharan Africa post-1980. This study presents a comprehensive, multi-scale empirical evaluation of climate-conflict connections across Asia, the continent with the highest conflict rate per country. We find little evidence that interannual climate variability and anomalies are linked to historical conflict risk in the simple and general manner proposed by some earlier research. Although a significant parameter coefficient can be obtained under certain specifications, the direction and magnitude of the climate effects are inconsistent and sensitive to research design. Instead, Asian civil wars share central features with violent events elsewhere, proving the main correlates of contemporary armed conflict to be economic and socio-political rather than climatological. © 2014, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84773
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), PO Box 9229, Grønland, Oslo, Norway; Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin Graduate School for Transnational Studies (BTS), Berlin, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Wischnath G.,Buhaug H.. On climate variability and civil war in Asia[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,122(4)