DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1032-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84899906731
论文题名: Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations
作者: Tebaldi C. ; Arblaster J.M.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 122, 期: 3 起始页码: 459
结束页码: 471
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Global warming
; Greenhouse gases
; Geographical features
; Global temperature change
; Impact assessments
; Integrated assessment models
; Model simulation
; Precipitation change
; Sources of variability
; Transient simulation
; Computer simulation
英文摘要: We review the ideas behind the pattern scaling technique, and focus on its value and limitations given its use for impact assessment and within integrated assessment models. We present estimates of patterns for temperature and precipitation change from the latest transient simulations available from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), focusing on multi-model mean patterns, and characterizing the sources of variability of these patterns across models and scenarios. The patterns are compared to those obtained from the previous set of experiments, under CMIP3. We estimate the significance of the emerging differences between CMIP3 and CMIP5 results through a bootstrap exercise, while also taking into account the fundamental differences in scenario and model ensemble composition. All in all, the robustness of the geographical features in patterns of temperature and precipitation, when computed as multi-model means, is confirmed by this comparison. The intensity of the change (in both the warmer and cooler areas with respect to global temperature change, and the drier and wetter regions) is overall heightened per degree of global warming in the ensemble mean of the new simulations. The presence of stabilized scenarios in the new set of simulations allows investigation of the performance of the technique once the system has gotten close to equilibrium. Overall, the well established validity of the technique in approximating the forced signal of change under increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is confirmed. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84790
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Climate and Global Dynamics, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), 1850 Table Mesa dr., Boulder, CO 80305, United States; NCAR and Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Tebaldi C.,Arblaster J.M.. Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,122(3)