globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1283-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84911954454
论文题名:
Inaction and climate stabilization uncertainties lead to severe economic risks
作者: Butler M.P.; Reed P.M.; Fisher-Vanden K.; Keller K.; Wagener T.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 127, 期:2018-03-04
起始页码: 463
结束页码: 474
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate stabilization ; Economic risks ; abatement cost ; carbon dioxide ; concentration (composition) ; cost-benefit analysis ; emission control ; environmental economics ; numerical model ; policy making ; risk factor ; socioeconomic status ; stabilization ; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Climate stabilization efforts must integrate the actions of many socio-economic sectors to be successful in meeting climate stabilization goals, such as limiting atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to be less than double the pre-industrial levels. Estimates of the costs and benefits of stabilization policies are often informed by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of the climate and the economy. These IAMs are highly non-linear with many parameters that abstract globally integrated characteristics of environmental and socio-economic systems. Diagnostic analyses of IAMs can aid in identifying the interdependencies and parametric controls of modeled stabilization policies. Here we report a comprehensive variance-based sensitivity analysis of a doubled-CO2 stabilization policy scenario generated by the globally-aggregated Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE). We find that neglecting uncertainties considerably underestimates damage and mitigation costs associated with a doubled-CO2 stabilization goal. More than ninety percent of the states-of-the-world (SOWs) sampled in our analysis exceed the damages and abatement costs calculated for the reference case neglecting uncertainties (1.2 trillion 2005 USD, with worst case costs exceeding $60 trillion). We attribute the variance in these costs to uncertainties in the model parameters relating to climate sensitivity, global participation in abatement, and the cost of lower emission energy sources. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84792
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States; Department of Agricultural Economics, Sociology, and Education, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Department of Geosciences, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Earth and Environment Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, United States; Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, University Walk, Bristol, BS8 1TR, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, United States

Recommended Citation:
Butler M.P.,Reed P.M.,Fisher-Vanden K.,et al. Inaction and climate stabilization uncertainties lead to severe economic risks[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,127(2018-03-04)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Butler M.P.]'s Articles
[Reed P.M.]'s Articles
[Fisher-Vanden K.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Butler M.P.]'s Articles
[Reed P.M.]'s Articles
[Fisher-Vanden K.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Butler M.P.]‘s Articles
[Reed P.M.]‘s Articles
[Fisher-Vanden K.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.