globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0990-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84890554118
论文题名:
A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts
作者: Refsgaard J.C.; Madsen H.; Andréassian V.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen K.; Davidson T.A.; Drews M.; Hamilton D.P.; Jeppesen E.; Kjellström E.; Olesen J.E.; Sonnenborg T.O.; Trolle D.; Willems P.; Christensen J.H.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 122, 期:2018-01-02
起始页码: 271
结束页码: 282
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change impact ; Climate condition ; Controlled experiment ; Future climate ; Guiding principles ; Science disciplines ; Single models ; Split-sample tests ; Ability testing ; Climate change ; Computer simulation ; Testing ; Climate models ; climate change ; climate effect ; ensemble forecasting ; forecasting method ; historical record ; model test ; spatiotemporal analysis ; time series analysis
英文摘要: Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data in order to build further confidence in model projections. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84813
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), Øster Voldgade 10, 1350 Copenhagen K, Denmark; DHI, Agern Alle 5, 2970 Hørsholm, Denmark; IRSTEA, Antony, France; Technical University of Denmark, 2800 Lyngby, Denmark; Aarhus University, Vejlsøvej 25, 8600 Silkeborg, Denmark; Technical University of Denmark, Risø, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark; Environmental Research Institute, University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand; Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Vejlsøvej 25, 8600 Silkeborg, Denmark; Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden; Aarhus University, 8830 Tjele, Denmark; KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium; Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen Ø, Denmark

Recommended Citation:
Refsgaard J.C.,Madsen H.,Andréassian V.,et al. A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,122(2018-01-02)
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