DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1027-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84898041966
论文题名: Projections of temperature and precipitation extremes in the North Western Mediterranean Basin by dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios at high resolution (1971-2050)
作者: Barrera-Escoda A. ; Gonçalves M. ; Guerreiro D. ; Cunillera J. ; Baldasano J.M.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 122, 期: 4 起始页码: 567
结束页码: 582
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Drought
; Economics
; Adaptation to climate changes
; Complex topographies
; Dynamical downscaling
; General circulation model
; Precipitation extremes
; Precipitation patterns
; Regional climate modeling
; Western Mediterranean basin
; Computer simulation
; climate modeling
; complex terrain
; decision making
; downscaling
; drought
; extreme event
; general circulation model
; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
; precipitation (climatology)
; public health
; regional climate
; socioeconomic impact
; temperature gradient
; Ebro Valley
; Pyrenees
; Spain
英文摘要: The North Western Mediterranean basin (NWMB) is characterised by a highly complex topography and an important variability of temperature and precipitation patterns. Downscaling techniques are required to capture these features, identify the most vulnerable areas to extreme changes and help decision makers to design strategies of mitigation and adaptation to climate change. A Regional Climate Model, WRF-ARW, is used to downscale the IPCC-AR4 ECHAM5/MPI-OM General Circulation Model results with high resolution (10 km), considering three different emissions scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) for 2001-2050. Model skills to reproduce observed extremes are assessed for a control period, 1971-2000, using the ERA40 reanalysis to drive the WRF-ARW simulations. A representative set of indices for temperature and precipitation extremes is projected. The modelling system correctly reproduces amplitude and frequency of extremes and provides a high degree of detail on variability over neighbouring areas. However, it tends to overestimate the persistence of wet events and consequently slightly underestimate the length of dry periods. Drier and hotter conditions are generally projected for the NWMB, with significant increases in the duration of droughts and the occurrence of heavy precipitation events. The projected increase in the number of tropical nights and extreme temperatures could have a negative effect on human health and comfort conditions. Simulations allow defining specifically vulnerable areas, such as the Ebro Valley or the Pyrenees, and foreseeing impacts on socio-economic activities in the region. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84815
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Climate Change Unit, Meteorological Service of Catalonia, Barcelona, Spain; Earth Sciences Department, Barcelona Supercomputing Center-Centro Nacional de Supercomputación, Barcelona, Spain; Projects Department, Technical University of Catalonia, Barcelona, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Barrera-Escoda A.,Gonçalves M.,Guerreiro D.,et al. Projections of temperature and precipitation extremes in the North Western Mediterranean Basin by dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios at high resolution (1971-2050)[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,122(4)