DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0974-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84897046888
论文题名: Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: Reconciling the new with the ol
作者: van Vuuren D.P. ; Carter T.R.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 122, 期: 3 起始页码: 415
结束页码: 429
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric composition
; Atmospheric radiation
; Climate change
; Mapping
; Climate characteristics
; Matrix architecture
; Radiative forcings
; Socio-economic development
; Socio-economics
; SRES Scenario
; Storylines
; Economics
英文摘要: A suggestion for mapping the SRES illustrative scenarios onto the new scenarios framework of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) is presented. The mapping first compares storylines describing future socio-economic developments for SRES and SSPs. Next, it compares projected atmospheric composition, radiative forcing and climate characteristics for SRES and RCPs. Finally, it uses the new scenarios matrix architecture to match SRES scenarios to combinations of RCPs and SSPs, resulting in four suggestions of suitable combinations, mapping: (i) an A2 world onto RCP 8.5 and SSP3, (ii) a B2 (or A1B) world onto RCP 6.0 and SSP2, (iii) a B1 world onto RCP 4.5 and SSP1, and (iv) an A1FI world onto RCP 8.5 and SSP5. A few other variants are also explored. These mappings, though approximate, may assist analysts in reconciling earlier scenarios with the new scenario framework. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84847
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, Netherlands; Department of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Climate Change Programme, Helsinki, Finland
Recommended Citation:
van Vuuren D.P.,Carter T.R.. Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: Reconciling the new with the ol[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,122(3)