globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0906-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84899863199
论文题名:
A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture
作者: van Vuuren D.P.; Kriegler E.; O'Neill B.C.; Ebi K.L.; Riahi K.; Carter T.R.; Edmonds J.; Hallegatte S.; Kram T.; Mathur R.; Winkler H.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 122, 期:3
起始页码: 373
结束页码: 386
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric radiation ; Climate change ; Research ; Tools ; Adaptation policies ; Climate research ; Global development ; Matrix architecture ; Mitigation strategy ; Radiative forcings ; Scenario development ; Socio-economics ; Architecture
英文摘要: This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: 1) the level of radiative forcing of the climate system (as characterised by the representative concentration pathways) and 2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). The matrix can be used to guide scenario development at different scales. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic pathways and shared policy assumptions (devices for incorporating explicit mitigation and adaptation policies), are elaborated in other papers in this special issue. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84865
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO BOX 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, Netherlands; Department of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, United States; ClimAdapt, LLC, Los Altos, CA, United States; International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Vienna, Austria; Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Box 140, 00251 Helsinki, Finland; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, United States; The World Bank, WA, DC, United States; The Energy and Resources Institute - TERI, New Delhi, India; University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa

Recommended Citation:
van Vuuren D.P.,Kriegler E.,O'Neill B.C.,et al. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,122(3)
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