DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1103-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84902248024
论文题名: Uncertainty in an emissions-constrained world
作者: Jonas M. ; Marland G. ; Krey V. ; Wagner F. ; Nahorski Z.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 124, 期: 3 起始页码: 459
结束页码: 476
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Global warming
; Greenhouse gases
; Anthropogenic sources
; Combined diagnostics
; Cumulative emissions
; GHG emission
; Global temperatures
; Land-use change
; Reducing emissions
; Temporal scale
; Uncertainty analysis
; anthropogenic source
; atmospheric pollution
; global warming
; greenhouse gas
; land use change
; risk factor
; temperature effect
; uncertainty analysis
; China
; United States
英文摘要: Our study focuses on uncertainty in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from anthropogenic sources, including land use and land-use change activities. We aim to understand the relevance of diagnostic (retrospective) and prognostic (prospective) uncertainty in an emissions-temperature setting that seeks to constrain global warming and to link uncertainty consistently across temporal scales. We discuss diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty in a systems setting that allows any country to understand its national and near-term mitigation and adaptation efforts in a globally consistent and long-term context. Cumulative emissions are not only constrained and globally binding but exhibit quantitative uncertainty; and whether or not compliance with an agreed temperature target will be achieved is also uncertain. To facilitate discussions, we focus on two countries, the USA and China. While our study addresses whether or not future increase in global temperature can be kept below 2, 3, or 4 °C targets, its primary aim is to use those targets to demonstrate the relevance of both diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty. We show how to combine diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty to take more educated (precautionary) decisions for reducing emissions toward an agreed temperature target; and how to perceive combined diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty-related risk. Diagnostic uncertainty is the uncertainty contained in inventoried emission estimates and relates to the risk that true GHG emissions are greater than inventoried emission estimates reported in a specified year; prognostic uncertainty refers to cumulative emissions between a start year and a future target year, and relates to the risk that an agreed temperature target is exceeded. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84867
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria; Appalachian State University, Boone, NC, United States; Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland
Recommended Citation:
Jonas M.,Marland G.,Krey V.,et al. Uncertainty in an emissions-constrained world[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,124(3)