| DOI: | 10.1007/s10584-014-1183-3
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84905392033
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| 论文题名: | Climate change impacts on wildfires in a Mediterranean environment |
| 作者: | Turco M.; Llasat M.-C.; von Hardenberg J.; Provenzale A.
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| 刊名: | Climatic Change
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| ISSN: | 0165-0009
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| EISSN: | 1573-1480
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 卷: | 125, 期:2018-03-04 | | 起始页码: | 369
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| 结束页码: | 380
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Climate change
; Forest fires
; Mediterranean ecosystems
; Regional impact scenarios
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| Scopus关键词: | Climate change
; Deforestation
; Fuels
; Linear regression
; Climate change scenarios
; Forest fires
; Increasing temperatures
; Mediterranean ecosystem
; Mediterranean environment
; Multi-linear regression
; Regional climate models
; Regional impacts
; Fires
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| 英文摘要: | We analyse the observed climate-driven changes in summer wildfires and their future evolution in a typical Mediterranean environment (NE Spain). By analysing observed climate and fire data from 1970 to 2007, we estimate the response of fire number (NF) and burned area (BA) to climate trends, disentangling the drivers responsible for long-term and interannual changes by means of a parsimonious Multi Linear Regression model (MLR). In the last forty years, the observed NF trend was negative. Here we show that, if improvements in fire management were not taken into account, the warming climate forcing alone would have led to a positive trend in NF. On the other hand, for BA, higher fuel flammability is counterbalanced by the indirect climate effects on fuel structure (i.e. less favourable conditions for fine-fuel availability and fuel connectivity), leading to a slightly negative trend. Driving the fire model with A1B climate change scenarios based on a set of Regional Climate Models from the ENSEMBLES project indicates that increasing temperatures promote a positive trend in NF if no further improvements in fire management are introduced. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84890
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | ISAC-CNR, Corso Fiume 4, 10133 Torino, Italy; University of Barcelona, Av. Diagonal 647, Barcelona, 08028, Spain
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Turco M.,Llasat M.-C.,von Hardenberg J.,et al. Climate change impacts on wildfires in a Mediterranean environment[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,125(2018-03-04)
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