DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1298-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84925537520
论文题名: An integrated approach for assessing flood impacts due to future climate and socio-economic conditions and the scope of adaptation in Europe
作者: Mokrech M. ; Kebede A.S. ; Nicholls R.J. ; Wimmer F. ; Feyen L.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 128, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 245
结束页码: 260
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Flood control
; Losses
; Population statistics
; Sea level
; Economic damages
; Flood protection
; Gross domestic products
; Impact simulation
; Integrated approach
; Number of peoples
; Population densities
; Socio-economic conditions
; Floods
英文摘要: The Coastal Fluvial Flood (CFFlood) model for assessing coastal and fluvial flood impacts under current and future climate and socio-economic conditions is presented and applied at the European scale. Flood frequency is estimated as a function of river flows, extreme sea levels and estimated defence standards to determine the flood extent and depth. Flood consequences are estimated by combining the latter with information on urban areas, population density and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Climate and socio-economic scenarios and possible adaptation choices are included to analyse future conditions. In 2010, almost 6 % of the European population is estimated to live in the 100 year flood area. The corresponding economic loss is €236 billion, assuming no defences. Estimated flood protection reduces economic damage substantially by 67 to 99 % and the number of people flooded is reduced by 37 to 99 % for the 100 year event. Impact simulations show that future climate and socio-economic conditions may increase flood impacts, especially in coastal areas due to sea-level rise. In contrast, impacts caused by fluvial flooding sometimes decrease, especially in southern and western regions of Europe due to decreases in precipitation and consequent run-off. Under high-end scenarios, flood impacts increase substantially unless there are corresponding adaptation efforts. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84896
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: School of Science and Computer Engineering, University of Houston Clear Lake, Houston, TX, United States; Faculty of Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom; Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany; Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy
Recommended Citation:
Mokrech M.,Kebede A.S.,Nicholls R.J.,et al. An integrated approach for assessing flood impacts due to future climate and socio-economic conditions and the scope of adaptation in Europe[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,128(2018-03-04)