DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1297-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84925463168
论文题名: Developing a reduced-form ensemble of climate change scenarios for Europe and its application to selected impact indicators
作者: Dubrovsky M. ; Trnka M. ; Holman I.P. ; Svobodova E. ; Harrison P.A.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 128, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 169
结束页码: 186
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Set theory
; Snow
; Climate change impact
; Climate change scenarios
; Climate impact researches
; Climatic variables
; European corn borers
; Global climate model
; Integrated assessment platforms
; Palmer drought index
; Climate change
英文摘要: This paper presents a method for identifying a representative subset of global climate models (GCMs) for use in large-scale climate impact research. Based on objective criteria (GCM performance in reproducing the seasonal cycle of temperature and precipitation, and a subset ability to represent future inter-GCM variability), two candidate subsets are selected from a reference set of 16 GCMs. An additional subset based on subjective expert judgement is also analysed. The representativeness of the three subsets is validated (with respect to the reference set) and compared for future changes in temperature, precipitation and Palmer drought index Z (direct validation), and occurrence of the European corn borer and snow-cover characteristics implemented in the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform (indirect validation).The direct validation indicates that one of the objective-based subsets (ECHAM5/MPI-OM, CSIRO-Mk3.0, HadGEM1, GFDL-CM2.1 and IPSL-CM4 models) provides the best choice for the Europe-wide climate change impact study. Its performance is balanced between regions, seasons and validation statistics. However, the expert-judgement-based subset achieved slightly better results in the indirect validation. The differences between the subsets and the reference set are generally much lower for the impact indices compared to their mean (across all GCMs in the subset) changes due to projected climate change. The ranking of the candidate subsets differs between regions, climatic characteristics and seasons, demonstrating that the subset suitability for a specific impact study depends on the target region and the roles of individual seasons and/or climatic variables on the processes being studied. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84903
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute of Atmospheric Physics ASCR, Prague, Czech Republic; Institute for Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University, Brno, Czech Republic; Cranfield Water Science Institute, Cranfield University, Cranfield, United Kingdom; CzechGlobe - Global Change Research Centre AS CR, Brno, Czech Republic; Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, Oxford, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Dubrovsky M.,Trnka M.,Holman I.P.,et al. Developing a reduced-form ensemble of climate change scenarios for Europe and its application to selected impact indicators[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,128(2018-03-04)