DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1142-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84902251370
论文题名: Identifying hot spots of security vulnerability associated with climate change in Africa
作者: Busby J.W. ; Cook K.H. ; Vizy E.K. ; Smith T.G. ; Bekalo M.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 124, 期: 4 起始页码: 717
结束页码: 731
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Computer simulation
; Hazards
; Heating
; Population statistics
; Rain
; Adaptive capacity
; Climate scientists
; Community resiliences
; Physical exposures
; Political violence
; Population densities
; Rain fed agriculture
; Security vulnerabilities
; Climate models
; adaptive management
; Agenda 21
; climate change
; hazard assessment
; natural hazard
; numerical model
; population density
; rainfall
; rainfed agriculture
; risk factor
; vulnerability
; Africa
英文摘要: Given its high dependence on rainfed agriculture and its comparatively low adaptive capacity, Africa is frequently invoked as especially vulnerable to climate change. Within Africa, there is likely to be considerable variation in vulnerability to climate change both between and within countries. This paper seeks to advance the agenda of identifying the hot spots of what we term "climate security" vulnerability, areas where the confluence of vulnerabilities could put large numbers of people at risk of death from climate-related hazards. This article blends the expertise of social scientists and climate scientists. It builds on a model of composite vulnerability that incorporates four "baskets" or processes that are thought to contribute to vulnerability including: (1) physical exposure, (2) population density, (3) household and community resilience, and (4) governance and political violence. Whereas previous iterations of the model relied on historical physical exposure data of natural hazards, this paper uses results from regional model simulations of African climate in the late 20th century and mid-21st century to develop measures of extreme weather events-dry days, heat wave events, and heavy rainfall days-coupled with an indicator of low-lying coastal elevation. For the late 20th century, this mapping process reveals the most vulnerable areas are concentrated in Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Niger, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan, with pockets in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Guinea, Mauritania, and Sierra Leone. The mid 21st century projection shows more extensive vulnerability throughout the Sahel, including Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, northern Nigeria, Niger, and across Sudan. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84904
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: LBJ School of Public Affairs, University of Texas-Austin, Austin, TX, United States; Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas-Austin, Austin, TX, United States
Recommended Citation:
Busby J.W.,Cook K.H.,Vizy E.K.,et al. Identifying hot spots of security vulnerability associated with climate change in Africa[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,124(4)