globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1184-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84905383972
论文题名:
The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 - a worst case
作者: Wetter O.; Pfister C.; Werner J.P.; Zorita E.; Wagner S.; Seneviratne S.I.; Herget J.; Grünewald U.; Luterbacher J.; Alcoforado M.-J.; Barriendos M.; Bieber U.; Brázdil R.; Burmeister K.H.; Camenisch C.; Contino A.; Dobrovolný P.; Glaser R.; Himmelsbach I.; Kiss A.; Kotyza O.; Labbé T.; Limanówka D.; Litzenburger L.; Nordl Ø.; Pribyl K.; Retsö D.; Riemann D.; Rohr C.; Siegfried W.; Söderberg J.; Spring J.-L.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 125, 期:2018-03-04
起始页码: 349
结束页码: 363
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Global warming ; Climatic anomalies ; Heat waves ; Instrumental measurements ; River flow ; Western Europe ; Drought
英文摘要: The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring-summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km2, we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84931
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Institute of History, Section of Economic, Social and Environmental History (WSU), University of Bern, Erlachstrasse 9a, Bern, 9 3000, Switzerland; Department of Geography; Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus Liebig University of Giessen, Senckenbergstrasse 1, 35390 Giessen, Switzerland; Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz Centre Geesthacht, Max-Planck-Strasse 1, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, CHN N11, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland; Department of Geography, Rheinische Friedrich Wilhelms University, Meckenheimer Allee 166, D-53115 Bonn, Germany; Chair Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus - Senftenberg, Konrad-Wachsmann-Allee 6, 03046 Cottbus, Switzerland; Centre of Geographical Studies, Institute of Geography and Planning, University of Lisbon, Edifício da Fac. de Letras, Alameda da Universidade, 1600-214 Lisboa, Portugal; Catalan Institute for Climate Sciences (IC3), Doctor Trueta 203, 08005 Barcelona, Spain; Department of Modern History, University of Barcelona, Montalegre 6, 08003 Barcelona, Spain; Department of Slavonic Studies and Interdisciplinary Centre of Medieval Studies, University of Salzburg, Erzabt-Klotz-Strasse 1, 5020 Salzburg, Austria; Institute of Geography, Masaryk University, Kotlářská 2, 611 37 Brno, Czech Republic; Global Change Research Centre AS CR, Bělidla 956/4a, 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic; Hoyerberg, Am Staeuben 18, Hoyerberg, 88131, Bodolz, Germany; Department of Earth and Sea Sciences (DiSTeM), University of Palermo, Via Archirafi 26, 90123 Palermo, Italy; Department of Environmental Social Studies and Geography - Physical Geography, Albert-Ludwigs University Freiburg i.Br., Werthmannstrasse 4, 79102 Freiburg, Germany; Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology, Karlsplatz 13, 1040 Vienna, Austria; Regional Museum, Dlouhá 139, 412 01 Litoměřice, Czech Republic; Institute of History, Technische Universität (TU) of Darmstadt, Residenzschloss, 64283 Darmstadt, Germany; Institute of Meteorology and Water Management National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB), Center for Poland's Climate Monitoring, Podleśna, 01-673 Warsaw, Poland; Lorraine University Center for Historical Research (CRULH), University of Lorraine, Campus Lettres et Sciences Humaines, Place Godefroy de Bouillon, BP 3397, 54015 Nancy Cedex, France; Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Research and Development Department, Division for Model and Climate Analysis, Henrik Mohns plass 1, P.O. Box 43, Blindern, N-0313, Norway; Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom; Department of Economic History, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden; Agroscope Research Station ACW, Extension Wine, Schloss 1 Postfach, 8820 Wädenswil, Switzerland; Station de recherche Agroscope à Pully, 21 av. de Rochettaz CH-1009, Pully, Switzerland

Recommended Citation:
Wetter O.,Pfister C.,Werner J.P.,et al. The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 - a worst case[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,125(2018-03-04)
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