DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1125-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84902182729
论文题名: Oscillatory dynamics do not mask linear trends in the timing of ice breakup for Northern Hemisphere lakes from 1855 to 2004
作者: Sharma S. ; Magnuson J.J.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 124, 期: 4 起始页码: 835
结束页码: 847
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climate change
; Dynamics
; Lakes
; Ice breakup date
; North Atlantic oscillations
; Northern Hemispheres
; Oscillatory dynamics
; Quasi-biennial oscillation
; Quasi-periodic
; Southern oscillation
; Total variance
; Ice
; climate change
; decadal variation
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; ice breakup
; linearity
; North Atlantic Oscillation
; Northern Hemisphere
; quasi-biennial oscillation
英文摘要: Our analyses partition the relative influence of progressive climate change and large-scale climate drivers that can be associated with the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), solar sunspot cycle, and multi-decadal oscillations on lake ice breakup dates for thirteen Northern Hemisphere lakes. Oscillatory dynamics explain 26 % of the total variance in the time series compared with 15 % for linear trends, leaving 60 % unexplained and likely attributable, in part, to local weather. Significant oscillatory dynamics include frequencies in 2-3 year periods (9.4 % of the total variance), 3-6 year periods (8.2 %), 10-12 year periods (1.6 %) and various multidecadal periods (0.4-1.3 %). All 13 study lakes, although widely scattered in the Northern Hemisphere, had similar oscillatory dynamics and linear trends, emphasizing that global processes influence lake ice breakup locally. We illustrate that while quasi-periodic dynamics associated with large-scale climate drivers are important, they do not mask the clear evidence for progressive climate change. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84932
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Biology, York University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, ON, Canada; Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States
Recommended Citation:
Sharma S.,Magnuson J.J.. Oscillatory dynamics do not mask linear trends in the timing of ice breakup for Northern Hemisphere lakes from 1855 to 2004[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,124(4)