globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1209-x
Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84919784799
Timescales associated with climate change and their relevance in adaptation strategies
Author: de Elía R.; Biner S.; Frigon A.; Côté H.
Source Publication: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
Publishing Year: 2014
Volume: 126, Issue:2018-01-02
pages begin: 93
pages end: 106
Language: 英语
Scopus Keyword: Atmospheric temperature ; Earth (planet) ; Gas emissions ; Greenhouse gases ; Adaptation requirements ; Adaptation strategies ; Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions ; Climate change impact ; Natural variability ; Statistical detection ; Surface temperatures ; Vulnerable systems ; Climate change ; anthropogenic effect ; climate change ; emission ; greenhouse gas ; temperature effect ; timescale ; North America
English Abstract: Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions that induce changes in the Earth’s climate affect particular variables and locations differently. A key part of this difference is the timescale at which this change takes place, which will eventually have important consequences for adaptation requirements. This idea of timescale associated with climate change has been used several times in the past to estimate the urgency of adaptation in particular regions. The definition of climate-change timescale is, however, not unique. For example, we can think of it in terms of an expected trend (e.g. in temperature) reaching a given threshold, or think of it in terms of the time it may take this trend to become statistically significant. We may also wonder about the validity of this speculation given that, due to natural variability, the expected trend may in fact not be realized. In this article we explore alternative ways of defining the timescale of climate-change, compare their properties, and illustrate them with an example for the case of projected surface temperature over North America. It is shown that these timescales are analytically related but may differ substantially in magnitude under certain conditions. In particular, it is shown that climate change impact on vulnerable systems may arrive before statistical detection of the variable’s trend takes place. This fact may have implications on how climate change impacts are seen by those with diverging interests. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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Document Type: 期刊论文
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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Affiliation: Consortium Ouranos, Montréal (Québec), 550, Sherbrooke street West, 19th floor, West tower, Montréal, QC, Canada; Centre pour l’Étude et la Simulation du Climat à l’Échelle Régionale (ESCER), Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM), Montréal, Canada

Recommended Citation:
de Elía R.,Biner S.,Frigon A.,et al. Timescales associated with climate change and their relevance in adaptation strategies[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,126(2018-01-02)
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