DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0994-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84890564812
论文题名: Seasonal to yearly assessment of temperature and precipitation trends in the North Western Mediterranean Basin by dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios at high resolution (1971-2050)
作者: Gonçalves M. ; Barrera-Escoda A. ; Guerreiro D. ; Baldasano J.M. ; Cunillera J.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 122, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 243
结束页码: 256
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Annual mean precipitation
; Climate change projections
; Global climate projections
; High resolution simulations
; Precipitation climatology
; Seasonal precipitations
; Spatial distribution of temperature
; Western Mediterranean basin
; Climate change
; Correlation methods
; Rain
; altitude
; climate modeling
; downscaling
; mountain region
; precipitation (climatology)
; regional climate
; seasonal variation
; spatial distribution
; temperature profile
; trend analysis
; uncertainty analysis
; Mediterranean Region
英文摘要: The complex topography and high climatic variability of the North Western Mediterranean Basin (NWMB) require a detailed assessment of climate change projections at high resolution. ECHAM5/MPIOM global climate projections for mid-21st century and three different emission scenarios are downscaled at 10 km resolution over the NWMB, using the WRF-ARW regional model. High resolution improves the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation climatologies, with Pearson's correlation against observation being higher for WRF-ARW (0.98 for temperature and 0.81 for precipitation) when compared to the ERA40 reanalysis (0.69 and 0.53, respectively). However, downscaled results slightly underestimate mean temperature (≈1.3 K) and overestimate the precipitation field (≈400 mm/year). Temperature is expected to raise in the NWMB in all considered scenarios (up to 1.4 K for the annual mean), and particularly during summertime and at high altitude areas. Annual mean precipitation is likely to decrease (around -5 % to -13 % for the most extreme scenarios). The climate signal for seasonal precipitation is not so clear, as it is highly influenced by the driving GCM simulation. All scenarios suggest statistically significant decreases of precipitation for mountain ranges in winter and autumn. High resolution simulations of regional climate are potentially useful to decision makers. Nevertheless, uncertainties related to seasonal precipitation projections still persist and have to be addressed. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84976
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Earth Sciences Department, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain; Projects Department, Technical University of Catalonia, Barcelona, Spain; Climate Change Unit, Meteorological Service of Catalonia, Barcelona, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Gonçalves M.,Barrera-Escoda A.,Guerreiro D.,et al. Seasonal to yearly assessment of temperature and precipitation trends in the North Western Mediterranean Basin by dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios at high resolution (1971-2050)[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,122(2018-01-02)