DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062829
论文题名: Impact of hindcast length on estimates of seasonal climate predictability
作者: Shi W. ; Schaller N. ; Macleod D. ; Palmer T.N. ; Weisheimer A.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8899
EISSN: 1944-8630
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 5 起始页码: 1554
结束页码: 1559
语种: 英语
英文关键词: predictability
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; North Atlantic
; North Atlantic oscillations
; Predictability
; Sampling uncertainties
; Seasonal climate predictability
; Seasonal forecasts
; Seasonal prediction
; Underdispersion
; Forecasting
; climate prediction
; data set
; ensemble forecasting
; hindcasting
; seasonal variation
; timescale
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
英文摘要: It has recently been argued that single-model seasonal forecast ensembles are overdispersive, implying that the real world is more predictable than indicated by estimates of so-called perfect model predictability, particularly over the North Atlantic. However, such estimates are based on relatively short forecast data sets comprising just 20 years of seasonal predictions. Here we study longer 40 year seasonal forecast data sets from multimodel seasonal forecast ensemble projects and show that sampling uncertainty due to the length of the hindcast periods is large. The skill of forecasting the North Atlantic Oscillation during winter varies within the 40 year data sets with high levels of skill found for some subperiods. It is demonstrated that while 20 year estimates of seasonal reliability can show evidence of overdispersive behavior, the 40 year estimates are more stable and show no evidence of overdispersion. Instead, the predominant feature on these longer time scales is underdispersion, particularly in the tropics. © 2015. The Authors. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84925877209&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL062829&partnerID=40&md5=5c74fb826072cd3b8b2d32a8523a0c61
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8515
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Physics, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Shi W.,Schaller N.,Macleod D.,et al. Impact of hindcast length on estimates of seasonal climate predictability[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(5).