DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062240
论文题名: Assessing the controllability of Arctic sea ice extent by sulfate aerosol geoengineering
作者: Jackson L.S. ; Crook J.A. ; Jarvis A. ; Leedal D. ; Ridgwell A. ; Vaughan N. ; Forster P.M.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8936
EISSN: 1944-8667
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 4 起始页码: 1223
结束页码: 1231
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Arctic sea ice
; climate change
; geoengineering
; sequential decision making
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Decision making
; Ice
; Model predictive control
; Sea ice
; Sulfur dioxide
; Arctic sea ice
; Control simulation
; Geoengineering
; Internal climate variability
; Regional climate changes
; Sequential decision making
; Sulfate aerosols
; Time-series data
; Climate models
; aerosol
; arctic environment
; assessment method
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; decision making
; detection method
; engineering geology
; remediation
; sea ice
; simulation
; stratosphere
; sulfate
; time series
; warming
英文摘要: In an assessment of how Arctic sea ice cover could be remediated in a warming world, we simulated the injection of SO2 into the Arctic stratosphere making annual adjustments to injection rates. We treated one climate model realization as a surrogate "real world" with imperfect "observations" and no rerunning or reference to control simulations. SO2 injection rates were proposed using a novel model predictive control regime which incorporated a second simpler climate model to forecast "optimal" decision pathways. Commencing the simulation in 2018, Arctic sea ice cover was remediated by 2043 and maintained until solar geoengineering was terminated. We found quantifying climate side effects problematic because internal climate variability hampered detection of regional climate changes beyond the Arctic. Nevertheless, through decision maker learning and the accumulation of at least 10years time series data exploited through an annual review cycle, uncertainties in observations and forcings were successfully managed. ©2015. The Authors. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84924872256&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL062240&partnerID=40&md5=434c134f0b9a1108bd971822d82cc706
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8552
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Jackson L.S.,Crook J.A.,Jarvis A.,et al. Assessing the controllability of Arctic sea ice extent by sulfate aerosol geoengineering[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(4).