DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062588
论文题名: Heavy precipitation in a changing climate: Does short-term summer precipitation increase faster?
作者: Ban N. ; Schmidli J. ; Schär C.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8939
EISSN: 1944-8670
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 4 起始页码: 1165
结束页码: 1172
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Clausius-Clapeyron scaling
; climate simulations
; convection-resolving model
; hourly precipitation
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Greenhouse gases
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Rain
; Clausius Clapeyron relation
; Clausius-Clapeyron scaling
; Climate simulation
; Convective precipitation
; Horizontal grid spacing
; Precipitation events
; Precipitation extremes
; Precipitation scaling
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate modeling
; convective system
; extreme event
; greenhouse gas
; parameterization
; precipitation intensity
; spatial resolution
; spatiotemporal analysis
; summer
; Alps
; Germany
; Italy
英文摘要: Climate models project that heavy precipitation events intensify with climate change. It is generally accepted that extreme day-long events will increase at a rate of about 6-7% per degree warming, consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. However, recent studies suggest that subdaily (e.g., hourly) precipitation extremes may increase at about twice this rate. Conventional climate models are not suited to assess such events, due to the limited spatial resolution and the need to parametrize convective precipitation (i.e., thunderstorms and rain showers). Here we employ a convection-resolving model using a horizontal grid spacing of 2.2 km across an extended region covering the Alps and its larger-scale surrounding from northern Italy to northern Germany. Consistent with previous results, projections using a Representative Concentration Pathways version 8.5 greenhouse gas scenario reveal a significant decrease of mean summer precipitation. However, unlike previous studies, we find that both extreme day-long and hour-long precipitation events asymptotically intensify with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Differences to previous studies might be due to the model or region considered, but we also show that it is inconsistent to extrapolate from present-day precipitation scaling into the future. Key Point Extreme hourly precipitation intensifies with the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84924904841&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL062588&partnerID=40&md5=8cd259b1dddc519149d3f714edd6b56c
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8555
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Ban N.,Schmidli J.,Schär C.. Heavy precipitation in a changing climate: Does short-term summer precipitation increase faster?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(4).