DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062681
论文题名: Atmospheric initial conditions and the predictability of the Arctic Oscillation
作者: Stockdale T.N. ; Molteni F. ; Ferranti L.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8969
EISSN: 1944-8700
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 4 起始页码: 1173
结束页码: 1179
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Arctic Oscillation
; predictability
; seasonal prediction
; stratosphere
Scopus关键词: Upper atmosphere
; Arctic Oscillation
; Arctic oscillations
; Model representation
; Northern Hemispheres
; Operational forecasts
; Predictability
; Seasonal forecast models
; Seasonal prediction
; Forecasting
; Arctic Oscillation
; correlation
; experimental study
; Northern Hemisphere
; prediction
; stratosphere
; temporal analysis
; troposphere
英文摘要: The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is the leading mode of variation in the northern hemisphere winter circulation. Despite its importance for winter temperatures, seasonal forecast models typically suggest that its predictability is low. Nonetheless, we show that an operational forecast model has high skill in predicting the AO, with a correlation of 0.61 for the period of 1981-2010. Experimentation covering a recent 8year high-skill period demonstrates the predictability of the model AO to be dominated by atmospheric initial conditions, although surface forcing does have increasing influence later in the winter. Results suggest that the stratosphere is an important carrier of model predictability during the early winter. These results challenge the conventional paradigm of surface forcing being the dominant source of predictability on seasonal time scales but are compatible with the results showing stratospheric influence on winter circulation. They also suggest that model representation of stratospheric to tropospheric coupling needs urgent improvement. ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84924854439&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL062681&partnerID=40&md5=7cb4cb189618b8ca9fd2a9bd55776a81
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8585
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Stockdale T.N.,Molteni F.,Ferranti L.. Atmospheric initial conditions and the predictability of the Arctic Oscillation[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(4).