DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062331
论文题名: Inferring changes in ENSO amplitude from the variance of proxy records
作者: Russon T. ; Tudhope A.W. ; Collins M. ; Hegerl G.C.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8970
EISSN: 1944-8701
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 4 起始页码: 1197
结束页码: 1204
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ENSO
; proxy
; variance
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Uncertainty analysis
; Climatic index
; ENSO
; Parametric approach
; Proxy
; Proxy records
; Southern oscillation
; Variance
; Climatology
; amplitude
; climate change
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; guideline
; proxy climate record
; uncertainty analysis
; variance analysis
英文摘要: One common approach to investigating past changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude is through quantifying the variance of ENSO-influenced proxy records. However, a component of the variance of all such proxies will reflect influences that are unrelated to the instrumental climatic indices from which modern ENSO amplitudes are defined. The unrelated component of proxy variance introduces a fundamental source of uncertainty to all such constraints on past ENSO amplitudes. Based on a simple parametric approach to modeling this uncertainty, we present guidelines for the magnitudes of proxy variance change required to robustly infer the following: (i) any change at all in ENSO amplitude and (ii) a change in ENSO amplitude that exceeds the plausible range of unforced variability. It is noted that more extreme changes in proxy variance are required to robustly infer decreases, as opposed to increases, in past ENSO amplitude from modern levels. ©2015. The Authors. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84924860749&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL062331&partnerID=40&md5=6e95e398875241ac1d65834f97f0f776
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8586
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Russon T.,Tudhope A.W.,Collins M.,et al. Inferring changes in ENSO amplitude from the variance of proxy records[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(4).