| DOI: | 10.1002/2014GL061793
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| 论文题名: | Future increase of supertyphoon intensity associated with climate change |
| 作者: | Tsuboki K.; Yoshioka M.K.; Shinoda T.; Kato M.; Kanada S.; Kitoh A.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-9064
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| EISSN: | 1944-8795
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 42, 期:2 | | 起始页码: | 646
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| 结束页码: | 652
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | climate change
; cloud-resolving model
; downscale simulation experiment
; global warming
; supertyphoon
; typhoon maximum intensity
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| Scopus关键词: | Climate models
; Global warming
; Hurricanes
; Storms
; Wind
; Cloud resolving model
; Global simulation
; Historical data
; Maximum intensities
; Supertyphoon
; Tropical cyclone intensity
; Typhoon intensities
; Very high resolution
; Climate change
; climate change
; downscaling
; global warming
; parameterization
; twenty first century
; typhoon
; uncertainty analysis
; wind velocity
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| 英文摘要: | Increases of tropical cyclone intensity with global warming have been demonstrated by historical data studies and theory. This raises great concern regarding future changes in typhoon intensity. The present study addressed the problem to what extent supertyphoons will become intense in the global warming climate of the late 21st century. Very high resolution downscale experiments using a cloud-resolving model without convective parameterizations were performed for the 30 most intense typhoons obtained from the 20 km mesh global simulation of a warmer climate. Twelve supertyphoons occurred in the downscale experiments, and the most intense supertyphoon attained a central pressure of 857 hPa and a wind speed of 88 m s-1. The maximum intensity of the supertyphoon was little affected by uncertainties that arise from experimental settings. This study indicates that the most intense future supertyphoon could attain wind speeds of 85-90 m s-1 and minimum central pressures of 860 hPa. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84923575201&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL061793&partnerID=40&md5=57eb0c97253dbe14ca2e2955824f405d
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8680
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center, Nagoya University, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Nagoya, Japan
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Tsuboki K.,Yoshioka M.K.,Shinoda T.,et al. Future increase of supertyphoon intensity associated with climate change[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(2).
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