DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064924
论文题名: Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012-2014
作者: Williams A.P. ; Seager R. ; Abatzoglou J.T. ; Cook B.I. ; Smerdon J.E. ; Cook E.R.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9135
EISSN: 1944-8866
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 16 起始页码: 6819
结束页码: 6828
语种: 英语
英文关键词: California
; climate change attribution
; drought
; Palmer Drought Severity Index
; potential evapotranspiration
; warming
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Moisture
; Soil moisture
; Anthropogenic warming
; California
; High spatial resolution
; Multiple representation
; Palmer drought severity indices
; Potential evapotranspiration
; Self-calibrated palmer drought severity indices
; Warming
; Drought
; anthropogenic effect
; atmospheric pollution
; data set
; drought
; evapotranspiration
; soil moisture
; spatiotemporal analysis
; warming
; California
; United States
英文摘要: A suite of climate data sets and multiple representations of atmospheric moisture demand are used to calculate many estimates of the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, a proxy for near-surface soil moisture, across California from 1901 to 2014 at high spatial resolution. Based on the ensemble of calculations, California drought conditions were record breaking in 2014, but probably not record breaking in 2012-2014, contrary to prior findings. Regionally, the 2012-2014 drought was record breaking in the agriculturally important southern Central Valley and highly populated coastal areas. Contributions of individual climate variables to recent drought are also examined, including the temperature component associated with anthropogenic warming. Precipitation is the primary driver of drought variability but anthropogenic warming is estimated to have accounted for 8-27% of the observed drought anomaly in 2012-2014 and 5-18% in 2014. Although natural variability dominates, anthropogenic warming has substantially increased the overall likelihood of extreme California droughts. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84941735691&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL064924&partnerID=40&md5=67d4de9e66e08e204bd54bee9c885e08
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8751
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Williams A.P.,Seager R.,Abatzoglou J.T.,et al. Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012-2014[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(16).