globalchange  > 科学计划与规划
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL065265
论文题名:
Fragility of reconstructed temperature patterns over the Common Era: Implications for model evaluation
作者: Wang J.; Emile-Geay J.; Guillot D.; McKay N.P.; Rajaratnam B.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9154
EISSN: 1944-8885
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期:17
起始页码: 7162
结束页码: 7170
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate field reconstruction ; global temperature reconstruction ; paleoclimate data-model comparison ; robustness of CFR patterns ; statistical model assessment
Scopus关键词: Nickel ; Climate field reconstruction ; Dynamical interpretation ; Global climate model simulations ; Global temperatures ; Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) ; Model comparison ; Statistical methodologies ; Statistical modeling ; Climate models ; climate modeling ; climate variation ; global climate ; La Nina ; Little Ice Age ; Medieval ; model validation ; paleoclimate ; reconstruction ; temperature ; North America
英文摘要: Climate field reconstructions(CFRs) enable spatially resolved estimates of past climates, providing important insights about climate variability over the Common Era. In particular, a reconstructed "La Niña-like" pattern during the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) to the Little Ice Age has been widely tied to medieval droughts in southwest North America. This pattern is now used as a key benchmark for global climate model simulations of the last millennium, which have yet to reproduce it. Here we test the pattern's robustness by using four different CFR methods and two proxy networks. With the older network, we find the reconstructed patterns to be highly method-dependent, with the La Niña-like pattern not reproduced by two of the CFR methodologies. With the updated proxy network, a globally uniform MCA emerges with all methods, in agreement with simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 ensemble. Our results caution against drawing dynamical interpretations from a single CFR and affirm the importance of developing CFRs through improved statistical methodology and community-driven proxy syntheses. ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84943338473&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL065265&partnerID=40&md5=06f9ed8686d381e33b831989c7f8d8fd
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8770
Appears in Collections:科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Wang J.,Emile-Geay J.,Guillot D.,et al. Fragility of reconstructed temperature patterns over the Common Era: Implications for model evaluation[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(17).
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