DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064966
论文题名: The distribution of precipitation and the spread in tropical upper tropospheric temperature trends in CMIP5/AMIP simulations
作者: Fueglistaler S. ; Radley C. ; Held I.M.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9163
EISSN: 1944-8894
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 14 起始页码: 6000
结束页码: 6007
语种: 英语
英文关键词: convection
; sea surface temperatures
; tropical temperature trends
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Heat convection
; Oceanography
; Submarine geophysics
; Surface properties
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Troposphere
; Atmospheric model intercomparison projects
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Precipitation patterns
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Sea surface temperatures
; Statistical evidence
; Tropical temperatures
; Tropospheric temperature
; Atmospheric temperature
; atmospheric general circulation model
; climate modeling
; convection
; data set
; precipitation (climatology)
; sea surface temperature
; troposphere
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Reconciling observations and simulations of tropical upper tropospheric temperature trends remains an important problem in climate science. Examining atmospheric models running over observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), Flannaghan et al. (2014) show that this reconciliation is affected by the SST data set used and that a precipitation-weighted SST (PSST) is valuable in explaining this result. Here we show that even for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 AMIP) simulations forced with identical SSTs, tropical upper tropospheric temperature trends across models (and between ensemble members) show a substantial spread (standard deviation ∼10% of the average trend). About 60% of this spread between ensemble means, as well as deviations from the ensemble means, can be explained by PSST calculated from the time-evolving precipitation in each model run. Both PSST and atmospheric temperature trends show statistical evidence for systematic differences between models. We conclude that the response of precipitation patterns to changes in SST patterns is a significant source of uncertainty for tropical temperature trends. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84938982765&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL064966&partnerID=40&md5=78e44a62835ba7237a874eae730cc90d
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8779
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Fueglistaler S.,Radley C.,Held I.M.. The distribution of precipitation and the spread in tropical upper tropospheric temperature trends in CMIP5/AMIP simulations[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(14).