DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064593
论文题名: Revisiting the recent California drought as an extreme value
作者: Robeson S.M.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9164
EISSN: 1944-8895
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 16 起始页码: 6771
结束页码: 6779
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; drought
; extreme value analysis
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Forestry
; Probability distributions
; Trees (mathematics)
; Extreme value
; Extreme value analysis
; Instrumental data
; Mean and standard deviations
; Palmer drought severity indices
; Return periods
; Southern California
; Weighted averages
; Drought
; climate change
; drought
; instrumentation
; mapping method
; spatiotemporal analysis
; California
; United States
英文摘要: Spatially weighted averages of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) over central and southern California show that the 1 year 2014 drought was not as severe as previously reported, but it still is the most severe in the 1895-2014 instrumental record. Using the typical adjustment procedure that matches the mean and standard deviation of tree ring PDSI values to those of instrumental data shows over 10 droughts from 800 to 2006 that were more severe than the 1 year 2014 drought, with the 2014 drought having a return period of 140-180 years. Quantile mapping allows for a closer correspondence between instrumental and tree ring PDSI probability distributions and produces return periods of 700-900 years for the 1 year 2014 drought. Associated cumulative 3 and 4 year droughts, however, are estimated to be much more severe. The 2012-2014 drought is nearly a 10,000 year event, while the 2012-2015 drought has an almost incalculable return period and is completely without precedent. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84941741910&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL064593&partnerID=40&md5=0783131d9a0a118ba7f4daaf7aab1e5e
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8780
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Geography, Indiana University, Bloomington, Bloomington, IN, United States
Recommended Citation:
Robeson S.M.. Revisiting the recent California drought as an extreme value[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(16).