| DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL065062
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| 论文题名: | Atlantic opportunities for ENSO prediction |
| 作者: | Martín-Rey M.; Rodríguez-Fonseca B.; Polo I.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-9224
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| EISSN: | 1944-8955
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 42, 期:16 | | 起始页码: | 6802
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| 结束页码: | 6810
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | AMO
; Atlantic SSTs
; ENSO
; hindcast
; non-stationary
; prediction
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| Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Forecasting
; Nickel
; Oceanography
; Surface waters
; AMO
; Atlantic SSTs
; ENSO
; Hindcasts
; Nonstationary
; Climatology
; annual variation
; atmosphere-ocean coupling
; climate change
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; hindcasting
; model validation
; Atlantic Ocean
; Pacific Ocean
|
| 英文摘要: | El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability with worldwide impacts. The knowledge of ENSO drivers and the underlying mechanisms is crucial to improve ENSO prediction, which still remains a challenge. The recently discovered connection between an Atlantic Niño (Niña) and a Pacific Niña (Niño), through an air-sea coupled mechanism during the first and last decades of the twentieth century, highlights an opportunity for ENSO prediction. Here a statistical cross-validated hindcast of ENSO along the twentieth century is presented, considering the Atlantic sea surface temperatures as the unique predictor field, and a set of atmospheric and oceanic variables related to the Atlantic-Pacific connection as the predictand field. The observed ENSO phase is well reproduced, and the skill is enhanced at the beginning and the end of the twentieth century. Understanding this multidecadal modulation of the Atlantic-Pacific connection could help to improve seasonal-to-decadal forecasts of ENSO and its associated impacts. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84941746225&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL065062&partnerID=40&md5=c4b0738e4507d3d83ce7ebdee1e5eeb6
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8840
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Instituto de Geociencias, UCM-CSIC, Madrid, Spain
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Martín-Rey M.,Rodríguez-Fonseca B.,Polo I.. Atlantic opportunities for ENSO prediction[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(16).
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