| DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL064119
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| 论文题名: | Spread of model climate sensitivity linked to double-Intertropical Convergence Zone bias |
| 作者: | Tian B.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-9257
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| EISSN: | 1944-8988
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 42, 期:10 | | 起始页码: | 4133
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| 结束页码: | 4141
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)
; double-ITCZ bias
; emergent constraint
; equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS)
; global climate models (GCMs)
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| Scopus关键词: | Earth sciences
; Geophysics
; Climate sensitivity
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Double-ITCZ bias
; Emergent constraint
; Global climate model
; Climate models
; climate feedback
; climate modeling
; cloud
; global climate
; intertropical convergence zone
; performance assessment
; research and development
; sensitivity analysis
; water vapor
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| 英文摘要: | Despite decades of climate research and model development, two outstanding problems still plague the latest global climate models (GCMs): the double-Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) bias and the 2-5°C spread of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Here we show that the double-ITCZ bias and ECS in 44 GCMs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 3/5 are negatively correlated. The models with weak (strong) double-ITCZ biases have high (low)-ECS values of ∼4.1(2.2)°C. This indicates that the double-ITCZ bias is a new emergent constraint for ECS based on which ECS might be in the higher end of its range (∼4.0°C) and most models might have underestimated ECS. In addition, we argue that the double-ITCZ bias can physically affect both cloud and water vapor feedbacks (thus ECS) and is a more easily measured emergent constraint for ECS than previous ones. It can be used as a performance metric for evaluating and comparing different GCMs. ©2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84931568310&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL064119&partnerID=40&md5=b2011731bac1a6b0f33a1c2e071fffcf
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8873
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Tian B.. Spread of model climate sensitivity linked to double-Intertropical Convergence Zone bias[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(10).
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