DOI: 10.1002/2015GL063666
论文题名: Temperature impacts on the water year 2014 drought in California
作者: Shukla S. ; Safeeq M. ; Aghakouchak A. ; Guan K. ; Funk C.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9281
EISSN: 1944-9012
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 11 起始页码: 4384
结束页码: 4393
语种: 英语
英文关键词: California drought
; drought predictability
Scopus关键词: Climatology
; Risk assessment
; Snow
; Soil moisture
; California
; Drought severity
; Historical climatologies
; Hydrological modeling
; Risk assessment framework
; Snow water equivalent
; Temperature forecasts
; Temperature impact
; Drought
英文摘要: California is experiencing one of the worst droughts on record. We use a hydrological model and risk assessment framework to understand the influence of temperature on the water year (WY) 2014 drought in California and examine the probability that this drought would have been less severe if temperatures resembled the historical climatology. Our results indicate that temperature played an important role in exacerbating the WY 2014 drought severity. We found that if WY 2014 temperatures resembled the 1916-2012 climatology, there would have been at least an 86% chance that winter snow water equivalent and spring-summer soil moisture and runoff deficits would have been less severe than the observed conditions. We also report that the temperature forecast skill in California for the important seasons of winter and spring is negligible, beyond a lead time of 1 month, which we postulate might hinder skillful drought prediction in California. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84934444465&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL063666&partnerID=40&md5=60ac6707a233b3b8efab721971b155c8
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8897
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Shukla S.,Safeeq M.,Aghakouchak A.,et al. Temperature impacts on the water year 2014 drought in California[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(11).