| 项目编号: | 1663770
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| 项目名称: | PREEVENTS Track 2: Collaborative Research: Comprehensive Hazard Analysis for Resilience to Geomagnetic Extreme Disturbances |
| 作者: | Michael Liemohn
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| 承担单位: | University of Michigan Ann Arbor
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| 批准年: | 2017
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| 开始日期: | 2017-09-01
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| 结束日期: | 2022-08-31
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| 资助金额: | 591833
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| 资助来源: | US-NSF
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| 项目类别: | Continuing grant
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| 国家: | US
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 特色学科分类: | Geosciences - Integrative and Collaborative Education and Research
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| 英文关键词: | idealized extreme event
; extreme gic event
; comprehensive hazard analysis
; extreme solar storm
; model
; geomagnetic extreme disturbances
; space weather extreme event
; forecast gic hazard
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| 英文摘要: | Extreme solar storms threaten society, in part, via Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) which damage power transmission systems. A space weather extreme event would devastate the US, costing more than $2T and leaving hundreds of millions without electricity for more than a month. The National Space Weather Action Plan calls for an immediate increase in research and improvements to our predictive capabilities to address this threat. This proposed work will make use of NSF funded data sources (AMPERE, SUPERMAG, and EarthScope) to improve existing models with in the Space Weather Modeling Framework and to generate a new tool for GIC prediction that could easily be transitioned to operations at NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center.
Comprehensive Hazard Analysis for Resilience to Geomagnetic Extreme Disturbances (CHARGED) applies experts in various disciplines to create a fully coupled, physics-based model of GICs that includes the magnetosphere, ionosphere, and solid Earth together with validation against state-of-the art globally distributed observations. The Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) will be improved with realistic particle precipitation and ionospheric conductance physics. A global 3D finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) model will be used to propagate the ionosphere signal through the ground while accounting for the oceans and variable lithosphere conductivity. This model will be validated using the best available in-situ and remote data to determine its predictive accuracy. The relationship between solar driving and GICs will be explored for both historical and idealized extreme events. The project will yield fundamental new understanding of the processes leading to extreme GIC events (solicitation target 1), and expand our capability to model and forecast GIC hazards (target 2). The resulting coupled system could form a natural extension to the operational SWMF version currently at NOAA. |
| 资源类型: | 项目
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/89190
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| Appears in Collections: | 全球变化的国际研究计划
科学计划与规划
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Michael Liemohn. PREEVENTS Track 2: Collaborative Research: Comprehensive Hazard Analysis for Resilience to Geomagnetic Extreme Disturbances. 2017-01-01.
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